Ghana’s Revenue Performance Undershoots Target by 5% Despite Strong Year-on-Year Growth
Ghana’s fiscal revenue performance for the first seven months of 2025 fell short of target by 5%, despite robust year-on-year growth, according to the Bank of Ghana’s September 2025 Monetary Policy Report.
Total revenue and grants amounted to GH¢116.2 billion, equivalent to 8.3% of GDP, below the programmed GH¢122.9 billion (8.8% of GDP). The shortfall represented a 5.5% deviation from target, though revenues and grants rose by 22.9% compared with the same period in 2024.
The report attributed the overall revenue miss to broad-based shortfalls across key tax lines, although some categories outperformed expectations. Non-oil tax revenue was marginally below target by 0.2%, while Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) taxes underperformed by 3.5%, reflecting reduced mining sector payments following the cedi’s appreciation.
Corporate tax collections exceeded target by 2.8%, supported by stronger contributions from the mining and financial sectors. Similarly, the domestic components of VAT, GETFund levy and NHIL surpassed their targets by 2.2%, 14.0%, and 14.8%, respectively, as consumer spending strengthened amid moderating inflation.
However, import-based tax lines underperformed. The import component of VAT, GETFund levy, and NHIL missed their targets by 3.8%, 4.6%, and 5.2%, respectively, while import duties fell short by GH¢1.9 billion, or 13%, largely on account of a stronger cedi reducing the CIF value of imports.
On the expenditure side, the government maintained tight fiscal discipline, with total spending coming in 14.1% below target, indicating effective control of public expenditure.
The fiscal balance showed notable improvement, with the primary balance on a commitment basis recording a surplus of 1.0% of GDP, double the targeted 0.5%. The report noted that the cedi’s appreciation had contributed to easing the debt burden and strengthening debt sustainability.
