- Gov’t Must Explain Debt Rise, Flagship Spending and Hidden Fiscal Risks — IERPP
The Institute for Economic Research and Public Policy has challenged the government’s presentation of Ghana’s economic recovery, arguing that the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review emphasised improving macroeconomic indicators while providing insufficient information about debt, flagship programmes and emerging fiscal risks.
The policy institute acknowledged the sharp decline in inflation, relative stability of the cedi and improvement in the public debt-to-gross domestic product ratio. But it said those gains did not remove the government’s obligation to provide a fuller account of the liabilities, financing arrangements and implementation results underlying its fiscal strategy.
“A credible accounting requires more than a catalogue of achievements; it demands an honest reckoning with the gaps and unexplained figures that remain,” IERPP said in an assessment released after Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson presented the review to Parliament.
The intervention adds to scrutiny of the government’s claim that Ghana has moved from crisis management towards sustained macroeconomic stability following debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation and an International Monetary Fund-supported adjustment programme.
IERPP’s criticism centred partly on the absence of detailed performance information for two flagship initiatives: the 24-Hour Economy programme and the Nkonko-Nkitinkiti poultry project.
The 24-Hour Economy initiative was allocated GH¢110.00 million in the 2026 budget and presented as an important element of the government’s strategy to expand production and address unemployment.
However, the institute said the Mid-Year Review did not disclose how much of the allocation had been spent, how many businesses had joined the programme or how many jobs had been created.
It raised similar concerns about Nkonko-Nkitinkiti, a GH¢245.00 million poultry development initiative intended to increase domestic production, reduce dependence on imports and create employment across the agricultural value chain.
The absence of measurable implementation results made it difficult for the public to assess whether the programmes were meeting their stated objectives, IERPP said.
“By distancing itself from these flagship policies, the government has left Ghanaians in the dark,” it added. “Citizens deserve transparency and accountability, not silence, on the true state of these initiatives.”
The institute also questioned the government’s characterisation of Ghana’s public debt position.
The Mid-Year Review reported that the public debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen from 61.80% at the end of 2024 to 45.00% by June 2026. IERPP said the improvement was significant but argued that the ratio, when presented without the corresponding nominal debt stock, offered an incomplete assessment of the country’s obligations.
Citing Bank of Ghana figures, it said total public debt increased from GH¢663.40 billion in January 2026 to GH¢720.80 billion in May, representing a rise of about GH¢57.40 billion in five months.
The May debt stock was also close to the GH¢726.00 billion recorded at the end of 2024, despite the substantial decline in the debt ratio.
The difference may reflect changes in nominal GDP, the exchange rate and debt valuation, but IERPP argued that the government should publish both the debt ratio and the absolute stock in cedi and dollar terms to prevent an overly favourable interpretation of the fiscal position.
It also sought clarification on a recently approved US$1.00 billion financing facility that it said was not discussed in the Mid-Year Review despite receiving parliamentary approval.
The institute said the public should be informed about the facility’s purpose, repayment terms, interest costs and potential impact on Ghana’s debt trajectory.
Education financing was another source of concern. Although the government allocated GH¢1.80 billion to the Free Senior High School programme, IERPP pointed to a separate US$300.00 million World Bank and International Development Association credit facility linked to education infrastructure.
It called on the government to explain more clearly the distinction between funding for school infrastructure and the recurrent costs of operating Free SHS, including food, teaching materials and other programme expenses.
The policy institute also criticised the omission of details concerning a High Court garnishee order that had reportedly frozen Ghana’s Contingency Fund.
The legal action could have implications for the government’s capacity to respond to emergencies and unforeseen expenditure pressures, it said, making disclosure of the amount affected and the circumstances of the dispute important to a complete assessment of fiscal risk.
IERPP further questioned the pace of the government’s response to the severe flooding recorded in June 2026.
It acknowledged the redirection of GH¢226.00 million towards interim flood mitigation measures but said postponing a long-term flood-control intervention until the 2027 budget cycle raised concerns about preparedness and public safety.
The financial condition of state-owned enterprises and the Bank of Ghana also required greater disclosure, the institute said.
While the Mid-Year Review acknowledged continuing liabilities at public enterprises and referred to a GH¢5.00 billion bond issued in March to recapitalise the central bank, it did not state the total obligations of the SOE sector or the full size of the Bank of Ghana’s capital shortfall.
Losses and arrears accumulated by state-owned enterprises, particularly in the energy sector, can ultimately migrate onto the government’s balance sheet and undermine fiscal targets.
The think tank therefore called for publication of consolidated SOE liabilities, including arrears, guarantees and other contingent obligations, alongside a fuller account of the central bank’s recapitalisation requirements.
IERPP recommended that future fiscal reports publish nominal public debt alongside debt-to-GDP ratios, disclose the terms and intended use of newly approved financing facilities and provide measurable progress reports on flagship programmes.
It also called for clarification of Free SHS financing, disclosure of the circumstances surrounding the frozen Contingency Fund and a comprehensive statement of liabilities held by state-owned enterprises and the Bank of Ghana.
The institute stressed that its assessment did not dispute the improvement in Ghana’s headline economic indicators.
Rather, it said the durability of the recovery would depend partly on whether the government matched its claims of economic progress with transparent reporting of the liabilities, risks and policy outcomes supporting those gains.
“Progress and transparency are not rivals; they are partners,” IERPP said. “A government confident in its record should embrace both achievement and disclosure in equal measure.”
