- Gov’t Sets GH¢15.38 Billion Fourth-Quarter Borrowing Target Ahead of DDEP Bond Buybacks
Ghana plans to raise net domestic financing of GH¢15.38 billion during the final quarter of 2026, combining regular Treasury bill auctions with medium- and long-term bond issuance while preparing buybacks of bonds created under the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme.
The October-to-December calendar places the domestic securities market at the centre of the government’s year-end strategy. It tests whether improving confidence can support longer-term borrowing without reigniting refinancing pressures.
The government said the programme was prepared around projected domestic debt maturities and the remaining net domestic financing target contained in the 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review framework. The GH¢15.38 billion figure is a net requirement, meaning it represents financing after the effect of maturing obligations rather than the total face value of securities that may be sold during the quarter.
That distinction matters. Gross issuance could be higher because the government must refinance maturing securities while raising additional resources. The announced amount is not necessarily the entire volume passing through the primary market. Pressure on liquidity will depend on maturities, redemptions, auction acceptances and bond-sale timing.
Under the calendar, 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bills will be offered weekly through the primary auction and settle one working day after transactions. Medium- to long-term securities will settle after two working days and be issued subject to market conditions.
The mix reveals competing objectives. Short-dated bills provide regular liquidity and remain familiar to banks, pension funds and other investors. Bonds are necessary to lengthen debt maturities, reduce repeated refinancing and rebuild benchmarks across the yield curve.
Reliance on Treasury bills may appear convenient, but excessive concentration at the short end can create a refinancing treadmill. Debt matures quickly, forcing the government to return repeatedly to investors and exposing the budget to sudden changes in interest rates or demand. Extending maturities can reduce that frequency, although investors will require confidence that inflation, fiscal policy and debt management will remain credible over longer periods.
The reference to “prevailing market conditions” is significant. It suggests longer-term issuance will follow investor appetite. That flexibility may prevent poorly covered auctions or excessive costs, but success will be visible in the market’s willingness to commit funds beyond one year. It is the clearest measure of whether confidence has returned beyond the short end of market.
The strongest signal in the calendar is the planned liability-management operation involving buybacks of 2027 DDEP bonds. These securities emerged from the domestic debt restructuring and form part of the repayment obligations approaching the government. Buying back some bonds before maturity could smooth the redemption profile, reduce a potential concentration of payments and demonstrate more active management of post-restructuring liabilities.
However, a buyback does not make debt disappear without cost. Government must fund the purchase, use accumulated resources or exchange one liability for another. Its value depends on the price paid, the volume retired, the funding source and whether the transaction produces a genuinely safer maturity structure. Transparent terms will be essential to assure investors that the exercise is improving debt management rather than merely moving obligations between dates.
The notice links the proposed buybacks to the full operationalisation of the sinking fund. A properly funded sinking fund can allow the government to accumulate resources gradually for future repayments instead of confronting large maturities without preparation. It can also improve predictability, provided deposits into the fund are regular, withdrawals are governed clearly and reporting allows the market to verify its balances and use.
The implications extend beyond government financing. Treasury yields influence pricing across Ghana’s financial system. When borrowing absorbs liquidity or offers attractive returns, investors may prefer sovereign securities to business lending. That can weaken the transmission of improving conditions into private-sector credit.
Conversely, orderly issuance supported by strong demand and declining risk premiums could help establish reference rates for corporate bonds and other long-term financing. Building benchmark securities across the yield curve is therefore not merely a public-debt objective. It can provide pricing points that allow companies, municipalities and financial institutions to raise capital more efficiently.
The fourth-quarter target must consequently be judged by more than whether GH¢15.38 billion is raised. The quality of financing matters: its maturity, cost, investor distribution and effect on market liquidity. A programme dominated by expensive short-term borrowing would meet an immediate cash requirement while leaving future budgets exposed. A balanced programme with credible longer-term demand would signal deeper recovery.
Investor appetite will also provide a real-time assessment of fiscal credibility. Strong auction coverage could indicate confidence in disinflation, liquidity conditions and the government’s capacity to honour obligations. Weak bids, aggressive yield demands or repeated rejection of offers would reveal continuing caution. The relationship between amounts tendered and accepted will therefore be as informative as the headline financing target.
Transparency is central because Ghana’s domestic investors absorbed substantial losses and disruptions during the debt exchange. Rebuilding trust requires more than publishing a quarterly target. Market participants need timely auction announcements, clear issuance terms, consistent settlement, accurate debt data and credible explanations when planned transactions change.
The calendar is a useful statement of direction, but it does not provide a detailed weekly breakdown of expected bond volumes. That leaves some uncertainty over the timing and size of longer-dated issuance and the proposed buybacks. Subsequent notices will need to supply the operational detail necessary for investors to manage liquidity and price risk.
For the government, the final quarter presents a delicate balance. It must finance the budget, meet maturities, manage the 2027 DDEP profile and preserve space for private credit. It must also avoid allowing short-term convenience to undermine the longer-term objective of restoring a stable domestic debt market.
The GH¢15.38 billion target is therefore not simply a borrowing number. It is a test of whether Ghana can move from crisis-era financing towards deliberate debt management. Success will mean raising funds predictably, extending maturities where conditions permit, executing buybacks transparently and rebuilding the confidence required for a credible yield curve. Failure would appear as renewed dependence on short bills, higher refinancing risk and an increasingly expensive contest for domestic liquidity.
