- Hichilema Favoured in Zambia Election but Cost-of-Living Pressures Cloud Economic Gains
Zambians are voting in a closely watched general election that is expected to favour President Hakainde Hichilema, but the contest is also becoming a test of whether the country’s recovery from sovereign default has translated into improvements ordinary households can feel.
Mr Hichilema, who took office in 2021 after defeating Edgar Lungu, is seeking a second term on the back of debt restructuring, falling inflation and renewed growth in one of Africa’s most important copper-producing economies. His main challenger is Brian Mundubile, a first-time presidential candidate leading an opposition alliance that includes supporters of the late former president.
The economic backdrop is considerably stronger than the one Mr Hichilema inherited. Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020, becoming the first African country to do so during the Covid-19 era, but has since restructured more than US$12 billion in external obligations and restored a greater degree of macroeconomic stability.
Inflation fell to 6.50% in June, its lowest level in more than eight years, while the economy has benefited from stronger copper prices and improved investor confidence. Growth has recovered, and the administration argues that the difficult reforms undertaken during its first term have placed Zambia on a more sustainable economic foundation.
Many Zambians continue to face high food, fuel and electricity costs, and the opposition has sought to exploit the gap between improving national statistics and household living standards. That tension is likely to be one of the defining questions of the vote: whether voters credit the government for stabilising an economy that had fallen into default, or punish it because the benefits of that recovery have not spread quickly enough.
The election therefore resembles a referendum on the sequencing of economic reform. Debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation and lower inflation can restore confidence, but they do not automatically generate jobs, higher real incomes or cheaper living costs in the short term.
Mr Hichilema’s government is asking voters for more time to convert stabilisation into broader growth. In April, after being confirmed as the ruling United Party for National Development’s presidential candidate, he said the next phase of government would focus particularly on employment and stronger private-sector job creation.
Zambia is one of Africa’s largest copper producers, and the metal accounts for about 70% of export earnings and more than 10% of GDP. With global demand being driven increasingly by electrification, renewable energy and data infrastructure, Zambia is attempting to raise production towards 3 million tonnes annually by 2031.
Higher copper prices can strengthen government revenues, foreign-exchange earnings and investment, but heavy dependence on a single commodity leaves the country exposed to global price swings. The next administration will therefore face pressure not only to increase copper production but also to deepen local processing, develop supplier industries and ensure mining investment produces more jobs and domestic value.
Investors will also be watching the future of Zambia’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund. The previous US$1.70 billion IMF programme supported the country’s debt restructuring, but attention is shifting towards whether a new arrangement can focus more heavily on growth and structural transformation rather than crisis stabilisation.
Fiscal pressures have not disappeared either. Reuters reported that the government’s purchases following a record maize harvest could push the fiscal deficit towards 5% of GDP, significantly above target, illustrating how quickly political and social pressures can complicate attempts to maintain fiscal discipline.
Zambia’s heavy reliance on hydropower has repeatedly exposed businesses and households to electricity shortages during droughts. Reliable energy supply will be essential if the country hopes to expand mining, processing and manufacturing sufficiently to create the jobs voters increasingly demand.
The political contest is complicated by a fragmented opposition. Reuters said analysts expect that division to favour Mr Hichilema, with Mr Mundubile attempting to consolidate support among voters dissatisfied with the government and supporters of the late Edgar Lungu.
Mr Lungu’s political shadow remains significant despite his death. The prolonged dispute over where the former president should be buried reflected the depth of hostility between his family and the Hichilema administration, while his political base remains relevant to the opposition coalition.
Critics have accused the administration of restricting political space, pointing to measures including the 2025 cybercrime law and constitutional changes, while the government has rejected suggestions that it is suppressing opposition activity. Freedom House classifies Zambia as “partly free”, and opposition strength is expected to remain particularly important in populous areas including Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
That makes the election a test not only of economic management but of the quality of Zambia’s democratic institutions.
Voting is taking place simultaneously for the presidency, parliament and local government. A presidential candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright; otherwise a run-off would be required within 37 days
About 8 million Zambians are registered to vote, with polling scheduled between 6am and 6pm and results expected by Monday.
For investors, the immediate question is continuity. A Hichilema victory would broadly be interpreted as an endorsement of the debt restructuring and market-oriented recovery programme pursued since 2021, while attention would quickly move towards copper investment, IMF engagement, energy reform and whether growth can become more employment-intensive.
A country can rebuild reserves, restructure billions of dollars of debt and reduce inflation while many households still struggle to afford food, electricity and transport. That gap between macroeconomic recovery and lived experience is precisely where the election will be decided.
Mr Hichilema enters the vote as the favourite, helped by incumbency, economic stabilisation and a divided opposition. But the deeper verdict Zambians are delivering is on whether recovery has become tangible enough to justify another five years.
The election therefore carries a lesson well beyond Zambia. Stabilising an economy after crisis can restore investor confidence and repair public finances, but democratic legitimacy eventually depends on something harder: turning those gains into jobs, incomes and improved living standards.
For Zambia, that second stage of the recovery may prove considerably more difficult than restructuring the debt itself.
