IC Research Projects Slight Inflation Rebound In March as Cost Pressures Resurface
IC Research is forecasting a marginal uptick in inflation for March 2026, citing renewed supply-chain disruptions and emerging cost pressures that could slow Ghana’s disinflation momentum.
The firm projects a 60 basis points increase in annual inflation to 3.9% in March 2026, while maintaining a flat month-on-month rate of 0.8%.
According to IC Research, upward pressure is expected from the delayed pass-through of first quarter utility tariff adjustments, alongside rising global energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“We expect further push from the belated pass-through of the 1Q2026 utility tariff hike while the Middle East war pushes Brent crude oil above US$83.0 per barrel, higher than the US$74.7 per barrel peak seen in March 2025,” the firm noted.
It added that elevated energy prices are likely to increase costs for gas and other fuels, reduce transport-related deflation, and pose upside risks to both non-food and headline inflation.
Food supply risks to re-emerge
IC Research further highlighted potential pressures from the agricultural sector, particularly with the onset of the planting season and disruptions to cross-border supply of key food items such as tomatoes.
These factors, it noted, could reverse recent declines in prices of vegetables and tubers, pushing food inflation higher and contributing to broader price increases.
“We believe the February 2026 inflation data suggest that Ghana’s disinflation trend is near the finish line and the authorities have now entered the decisive phase of sustaining price stability,” the report stated, ahead of the upcoming policy decision by the Monetary Policy Committee.
Disinflation trend shows signs of fatigue
The firm observed a shift in inflation dynamics, noting that for the first time since January 2025, food and non-food inflation moved in opposite directions—an early signal that the disinflation cycle may be nearing its end.
According to the Ghana Statistical Service, headline inflation declined to 3.3% in February 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of easing price pressures.
Food inflation recorded a sharper decline, dropping by 150 basis points to 2.4% year-on-year, with month-on-month inflation easing significantly to 0.2%.
In contrast, non-food inflation rose by 30 basis points to 4.0% year-on-year, overtaking food inflation after both categories converged in January.
IC Research also flagged increasing price pressures within the non-food basket, noting a decline in the number of divisions experiencing disinflation—from ten to seven—while divisions recording rising inflation increased from two to five.
The emerging divergence between food and non-food inflation, coupled with external and domestic cost pressures, suggests a more complex path ahead for inflation management despite the recent gains.
