IES Forecasts Ex-Pump Price Reduction in Diesel and LPG; Petrol Price to Remain Stable
The Institute for Energy Studies (IES), has projected reductions in the ex-pump prices of diesel and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) for the second pricing window of November.
Ex-pump price for petrol is, however, expected by the IES to remain stable within the review period.
The anticipated price reduction in diesel and LPG, according to the IES is due to a significant drop in the prices of some refined petroleum products, including gasoline (-6.42%) and LPG (-0.11%) on the international fuel market.
The reduction in ex-pump prices is despite the continued depreciation of the local currency.
“The international fuel market has experienced a significant drop in the prices of some refined petroleum products, including gasoline (-6.42%) and LPG (-0.11%). Meanwhile, the Ghanaian cedi continued to depreciate, recording a loss of 1.48% against the U.S. dollar.
“Given the combined effects of price changes in the global fuel market and the depreciation of the cedi, the second pricing window of November is expected to bring mixed reactions in the local fuel market.
“Specifically, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) anticipates a decrease in the prices of gasoline and LPG, while the price of gasoil is expected to remain stable,” noted the IES.
Local Fuel Market Performance
Per the IES, the first pricing window of November 2024 has been relatively stable, with international fuel markets seeing a decrease in the price of liquid petroleum products.
However, the continued depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi has prevented consumers from benefiting from the significant price reductions at the pumps.
The Institute for Energy Security’s (IES) computation of the national average price for the three refined petroleum products during the first pricing window of September 2024 shows that gasoline and gasoil were sold at GH₵14.80 and GH₵14.17 per litre, respectively, while LPG was priced at GH₵19.13 per kilogram (kg).
IES Marketscan identifies Star Oil, Zen Petroleum, and Benab Oil as the OMCs offering the lowest prices over the past two weeks.
World Fuel Market
With regards to the world fuel market, the IES notes that data from Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Platts on the performance of petroleum products in the global fuel market reveals that the prices of LPG and gasoline decreased during the first pricing window of November 2024.
According to the published data, gasoline closed at $676.64 per metric tonne, gasoil at $667.61 per metric tonne, and LPG at $607.98 per metric tonne.
The net changes for these petroleum products show LPG decreased by 0.11%, gasoline fell by 6.42%, while gasoil saw a modest increase of 0.19%.
