IMF Projects Strong Medium-Term Growth for Qatar on LNG Expansion and Reform Momentum
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed confidence in Qatar’s economic outlook, citing strong macroeconomic management, expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and sustained non-hydrocarbon growth driven by ongoing reforms.
An IMF staff mission, led by Mr. Nathan Porter, visited Doha from January 25 to February 5, 2026, as part of discussions for the 2026 Article IV Consultation. The mission’s findings will be submitted to IMF management and the Executive Board, which is expected to deliberate on the report in March 2026.
In a statement issued at the end of the visit, the IMF said Qatar has demonstrated resilience amid global economic and geopolitical challenges. Economic growth rebounded to 2.4 per cent in 2024 and strengthened to about 3 per cent through the third quarter of 2025. The Fund projects average growth of around 4 per cent over the medium term, supported by LNG production expansion and reforms under the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).
Inflation is expected to remain contained at around 2 per cent over the medium term, in line with the riyal’s peg to the US dollar. The IMF noted that fiscal and external current account surpluses are projected to persist, while the financial sector remains sound.
However, the Fund cautioned that risks to the outlook include a potential global growth slowdown, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and longer-term uncertainties related to LNG market oversupply and climate stress. On the upside, faster reform implementation and stronger-than-expected LNG output could further lift growth.
The IMF said Qatar’s fiscal stance remains broadly prudent and aligned with ensuring intergenerational equity, with disciplined spending envisaged under the 2026 budget. It encouraged the authorities to leverage the favourable outlook to accelerate revenue diversification, including the introduction of a value-added tax, improve spending efficiency, enhance transparency in domestic gas pricing, and further reorient public expenditure toward supporting private sector-led growth.
According to the Fund, adopting a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework anchored on intergenerational equity, supported by stronger transparency and risk management, would enhance fiscal sustainability and support Qatar’s economic transformation. Recent pension reforms were welcomed, with a call for greater actuarial transparency to strengthen fiscal planning.
On monetary policy, the IMF noted that the Qatar Central Bank’s policy rate adjustments have remained aligned with those of the US Federal Reserve, consistent with the currency peg. It urged continued capacity building and implementation of IMF technical assistance to strengthen monetary operations and market development.
The Fund assessed Qatar’s financial system as stable, supported by strong regulatory oversight, but called for continued vigilance, particularly regarding banks’ exposure to real estate, rising net foreign liabilities and close links with the public sector. Recommendations included introducing a positive neutral counter-cyclical capital buffer, diversifying funding sources to reduce sovereign-bank risks, and extending the maturity profile of bank funding.
The IMF also welcomed progress in financial inclusion and digitalisation, while advising that new risks associated with these developments be carefully managed. It encouraged continued deepening of domestic financial markets under the Third Financial Sector Strategy and commended Qatar’s strong efforts in combating financial crimes.
Looking ahead, the Fund said Qatar’s transition toward a diversified, knowledge-based economy should focus on building and retaining human capital, enhancing skills and private sector employment for nationals, promoting innovation including digitalisation and artificial intelligence, improving access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, and expanding trade diversification. It added that achieving the objectives of NDS3 will require careful sequencing of reforms and improved data availability to support policy formulation.
The IMF staff team expressed appreciation to the Qatari authorities for the constructive engagement during the visit, noting meetings with Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, other senior government officials and private sector representatives.
