- IMF Says Ghana’s Stabilisation Gains Remain Fragile as Energy, Cocoa and Banking Risks Persist
Ghana has emerged from its International Monetary Fund-supported rescue programme with sharply lower inflation, stronger foreign-exchange reserves and an improved debt outlook, but significant vulnerabilities remain across the energy, cocoa and financial sectors, according to the Fund’s Executive Board.
In its final assessment of Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility programme, the IMF said the country’s performance had been broadly satisfactory, with sustained reforms and favourable commodity prices delivering substantial gains in macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.
Inflation has fallen sharply, the primary fiscal balance has moved from a large deficit into surplus, and international reserves have been rebuilt beyond programme targets. Ghana’s comprehensive debt restructuring is also largely complete, allowing the Fund to return the country’s risk of external and overall debt distress to a moderate rating.
The assessment marks a significant improvement from the conditions that forced Ghana to seek a US$3 billion IMF programme in 2023, when the country faced rapidly rising prices, a weakening currency, unsustainable public debt and restricted access to international capital markets.
But the Fund warned that the progress remained dependent on continued reform implementation under Ghana’s new Policy Coordination Instrument, a non-financing arrangement intended to anchor economic policy after the ECF programme.
The IMF said fiscal discipline would remain central to meeting Ghana’s development, social and security needs without reversing gains in debt sustainability.
Domestic revenue mobilisation would need to improve, while public financial management, investment planning and oversight of state-owned enterprises must be strengthened, particularly in the energy and cocoa sectors.
Those areas remain among the largest sources of fiscal risk. Accumulated liabilities, operational losses and weak governance in public entities could eventually migrate onto the government’s balance sheet, increasing borrowing requirements and weakening the debt trajectory.
The Fund also called for stronger social protection to ensure that vulnerable households benefit from the recovery and are shielded from the effects of fiscal adjustment and potential economic shocks.
Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.00% in 2025, outperforming the 4.80% projection contained in the fifth ECF review. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.80% in 2026 before settling at about 5.00% annually through 2031.
Non-extractive economic growth, which excludes mining and oil, reached 7.00% in 2025 but is projected to slow to 4.40% in 2026. Extractive-sector output contracted by 0.90% in 2025 but is expected to rebound by 7.70% this year.
Real GDP per capita is forecast to increase by 3.00% in 2026 and remain above 3.00% annually over most of the medium term.
End-of-period inflation fell from 23.80% in 2024 to a preliminary 5.40% in 2025. The IMF expects inflation to rise towards the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term objective of 8.00% by the end of 2026 and remain at that level through 2031.
Average inflation is projected at 5.90% in 2026 before increasing gradually to 8.00% from 2029.
The central bank was credited with successfully anchoring disinflation, rebuilding external buffers and cautiously easing monetary policy as price pressures subsided.
However, the IMF said maintaining monetary-policy credibility would depend on protecting the independence of the Bank of Ghana and permanently ending quasi-fiscal activities.
It called for the complete transfer of the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme to the Ghana Gold Board and full implementation of the central bank recapitalisation plan.
The Fund’s concerns reflect the risks associated with central-bank operations that create fiscal costs or expose the Bank of Ghana’s balance sheet to losses outside its traditional monetary-policy mandate.
The financial sector has become more resilient, but vulnerabilities remain at some state-owned and private banks and specialised deposit-taking institutions, the IMF said.
It called for decisive corrective action, robust supervision and completion of Ghana’s crisis-management and bank-resolution framework.
The Fund also stressed the importance of governance reforms, including the timely enactment of the revised Conduct of Public Officials Bill, which it said would strengthen transparency, accountability and public confidence.
Ghana’s fiscal position improved considerably in 2025. The primary balance recorded a surplus of 2.10% of GDP, compared with a deficit of 2.10% in 2024.
The government is expected to maintain a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2026 before the target declines to 0.50% from 2027 through 2031.
The overall fiscal deficit narrowed to a preliminary 1.30% of GDP in 2025 from 6.00% in 2024. It is projected to widen to 2.20% in 2026 and reach 3.30% by 2030 and 2031 as interest payments and other spending pressures increase.
Revenue is expected to remain at 16.80% of GDP in 2026 and 2027 before rising gradually to 17.30% by 2030.
Public debt declined sharply from 70.10% of GDP in 2024 to a preliminary 48.80% in 2025, significantly below the 56.60% projection under the fifth review.
The IMF expects the ratio to rise to 52.60% in 2026 before declining progressively to 48.00% by 2031.
Domestic debt is projected to remain relatively stable at about 27.00% of GDP over the medium term, while external debt is expected to decline from 25.70% in 2026 to 20.80% by 2031.
The external sector remains a major source of strength. Ghana recorded a current-account surplus equivalent to 7.90% of GDP in 2025, far above the 4.50% expected under the previous review. The surplus is projected at 7.00% in 2026 before narrowing steadily to 2.90% by 2031.
Gross international reserves rose to US$11.91 billion in 2025 from US$6.52 billion in 2024. They are projected to increase to US$14.07 billion in 2026 and reach US$24.93 billion by 2031.
Import cover is expected to improve from four months in 2025 to 4.50 months in 2026 and 6.10 months by the end of the projection period.
The figures indicate that Ghana has moved decisively away from the acute instability that characterised the beginning of the IMF programme.
Yet the Fund’s assessment makes clear that the transition from crisis stabilisation to sustainable growth is incomplete.
Ghana’s next test will be whether it can maintain fiscal restraint, protect central-bank independence, contain risks in state-owned enterprises and strengthen financial-sector supervision without the direct incentive of bailout disbursements.
The macroeconomic gains are substantial. Their durability will depend on whether the reforms that produced them become permanent features of Ghana’s institutions rather than temporary conditions attached to an IMF programme.
