- Inflation Fight Is Not Over as Fuel Costs Rise, Food and Utility Costs Build Pressure – Deloitte Warns
Rising fuel costs could threaten Ghana’s inflation outlook in 2026, with higher oil prices expected to feed into energy costs, transport fares and broader non-food inflation, according to Deloitte’s latest monthly inflation outlook.
The warning comes after Ghana’s inflation rose marginally to 3.4 per cent in April 2026, up by 0.2 percentage points, marking the first increase after 15 consecutive months of decline. Month-on-month inflation also accelerated to 1.0 per cent, from 0.1 per cent in March, the highest monthly increase since February 2025.
Deloitte said the Bank of Ghana is likely to slow the pace of interest rate cuts and adopt a more cautious monetary policy stance as renewed price pressures begin to emerge. The firm noted that fuel costs could pass through into transport fares and energy-related expenses, complicating the central bank’s effort to sustain the disinflation trend.
The report also warned that food inflation could rise in the coming months due to seasonal factors, particularly as supplies of staple crops such as maize, rice and cassava decline. That could place upward pressure on the food index after months of easing food prices.
Food inflation fell slightly to 2.2 per cent in April, from 2.3 per cent in March, supported by improved domestic supply conditions, favourable seasonal factors for agricultural produce and sustained cedi stability, which helped reduce imported input costs.
Non-food inflation, however, rose to 4.2 per cent from 3.9 per cent, driven largely by higher fuel prices, increased transport costs and structural rigidities in housing, utilities, water, gas and electricity.
Deloitte further cautioned that possible exchange rate volatility affecting imported goods and upward adjustments in service costs could deepen pressure on the non-food inflation basket.
The top five divisions with the highest inflation rates in April were Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 12.48 per cent; Insurance and Financial Services at 7.9 per cent; Education Services at 7.5 per cent; Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 7.5 per cent; and Recreation, Sports and Culture at 4.8 per cent.
Deloitte’s warning highlights the fragility of Ghana’s recent disinflation success. Inflation has eased sharply from crisis-era levels, but the April uptick suggests that the next phase of price stability may be more difficult to secure, especially if global oil prices remain elevated or domestic transport fares adjust upward.
The Bank of Ghana has already begun easing monetary policy after the steep fall in inflation, but Deloitte’s outlook suggests the central bank may now have to balance growth-supportive rate cuts against the risk of allowing inflation expectations to rise again.
For households and businesses, the immediate concern will be the pass-through from fuel prices into transport, utilities, logistics and food distribution costs. In Ghana’s inflation structure, fuel price increases rarely remain confined to the pump. They often move quickly into food prices, public transport fares, production costs and service charges.
Deloitte’s message is not that Ghana’s inflation fight has been lost. It is that the gains from disinflation may be over and that the next test will be whether the country can preserve price stability in the face of fuel, food and exchange-rate risks.
