- Investor Demand Concentrates in DDEP Bonds as GFIM Activity Slows to GH¢7.15bn
Trading on the Ghana Fixed Income Market slowed in the week ending October 16, 2026, as weaker activity in Treasury bills, sell-buy-back transactions and newer government bonds outweighed resilient demand for restructured domestic debt.
Total turnover declined by 20.4 per cent to GH¢7.15bn from GH¢8.98bn in the previous week, representing a reduction of about GH¢1.83bn.
The decline, however, conceals an important distinction. Trading in Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds remained broadly stable at GH¢3.97bn, only 0.7 per cent below the previous week’s GH¢4.00bn.
DDEP securities accounted for 55.5 per cent of total turnover, making them the market’s dominant asset class. Treasury bills contributed 41.1 per cent, while sell-buy-back trades represented another 3.2 per cent.
Treasury-bill turnover fell by 29.9 per cent to GH¢2.94bn from GH¢4.19bn. The GH¢1.26bn weekly decline accounted for most of the overall reduction in GFIM activity.
Lower trading in bills may reflect investors retaining short-dated instruments, reduced liquidity, changing expectations about yields or fewer opportunities to reposition portfolios. It does not, by itself, establish weaker demand at primary auctions, but it suggests less aggressive secondary-market rotation.
Sell-buy-back transactions dropped by 66.9 per cent to GH¢226.13m from GH¢684.12m. Because SBB trades are frequently associated with short-term funding and liquidity management, the decline points to reduced activity in collateralised market operations during the week.
Trading in new government bonds weakened more sharply, falling 93.3 per cent to GH¢5.24m from GH¢78.35m. Old government bonds recorded no trades after generating GH¢592,330 a week earlier.
Corporate securities lost momentum. Turnover decreased by 66.8 per cent to GH¢10.17mn from GH¢30.66m, reinforcing the limited role of private-sector debt in a market overwhelmingly dominated by sovereign instruments.
Commercial paper contributed GH¢5.13m during the week, but no corresponding previous-week figure was provided. Even after including that activity, corporate and commercial-paper trades represented barely 0.2 per cent of total turnover.
Deepening corporate issuance will require credible financial disclosure, stronger ratings, dependable pricing benchmarks and institutional investors willing to assess private credit rather than defaulting almost exclusively to government paper.
Within the DDEP segment, trading was highly concentrated in a few maturities. The February 2032 bond recorded GH¢1.20bn in turnover, the largest amount among the listed securities and 16.8 per cent of total market activity.
The February 2030 bond followed with GH¢870.10m, while the February 2027 instrument attracted GH¢672.89m. These three maturities accounted for roughly 69.5 per cent of detailed DDEP and new-bond trading.
Activity in the 2027 bond increased by 67.9 per cent from GH¢400.74m, suggesting interest in the shortest DDEP maturity. Its yield declined by 77 basis points to 10.25 per cent from 11.02 per cent, indicating firmer pricing.
That combination of rising turnover and falling yield suggests investors were willing to pay more for near-term government exposure, possibly because of its shorter duration and reduced sensitivity to longer-term fiscal uncertainty.
The February 2031 bond also registered a notable increase. Turnover more than doubled to GH¢435.74m from GH¢214.45m, while its yield rose by 24 basis points to 14.52 per cent.
Higher activity alongside a rising yield could reflect selling pressure, negotiated portfolio repositioning or investors demanding additional compensation at that maturity.
The February 2034 bond’s turnover increased 131.4 per cent to GH¢80.59m, with its yield rising 23 basis points to 15 per cent. Trading in the February 2035 instrument climbed more than sixfold to GH¢60.39m, although from a low base, while its yield fell 30 basis points to 14.5 per cent.
The February 2029 bond remained heavily traded at GH¢567.57m, but turnover fell 49.3 per cent. Its yield edged two basis points higher to 14 per cent.
The 2030 DDEP bond was comparatively stable. Turnover rose marginally to GH¢870.10m, while the yield declined 14 basis points to 14.23 per cent.
At the longer end, yields were unchanged. The 2036 bond held at 15.5 per cent, the highest yield on the reported curve, although it recorded no trading. The 2038 bond remained at 14.75 per cent and also attracted no trades.
An indicated yield without turnover should be interpreted cautiously because it may not represent a fresh market-clearing transaction. Limited trading at the long end also reduces the reliability of the curve as a signal of investor expectations.
The newer government bonds remained peripheral. Turnover in the September 2030 security fell 90.4 per cent to GH¢4.41m, while its yield declined 30 basis points to 11.35 per cent.
The March 2033 new bond generated only GH¢830,081, down 97.4 per cent from GH¢32.50m, even as its yield increased eight basis points to 12.6 per cent.
The substantial yield gap between newer bonds and comparable DDEP maturities shows that investors continue to price the instruments differently, potentially reflecting coupon structures, liquidity, repayment terms and perceptions of risk.
The week’s data therefore present a market with stable demand for core restructured securities but weaker overall liquidity. Investors concentrated on selected DDEP maturities while activity in bills, corporate debt, new government bonds and financing transactions retreated.
The near-term outlook will depend on Treasury funding requirements, primary-auction yields, banking-sector liquidity, inflation expectations and signals about future monetary policy.
If rates continue declining, investors may extend duration to protect yields, supporting medium- and longer-dated bonds. But uneven liquidity and memories of domestic debt restructuring may keep demand concentrated in instruments offering clearer pricing and easier exit opportunities.
Ghana’s fixed-income market is functioning, but its depth remains uneven. GH¢7.15bn in weekly turnover is still substantial; the larger policy challenge is building a market where liquidity extends beyond a handful of government securities and private issuers can obtain meaningful financing.
