- Macro Gains Are Showing, but Relief Will Take Time — Finance Ministry
Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery is beginning to transmit into the real economy, although the full impact on households and businesses will take time to be felt, a technical adviser at the Ministry of Finance, Frederick Amissah, has said.
Speaking at the JoyBusiness Roundtable Discussion on the theme “Mahama at 16 Months: Do Economic Narratives Match Real-Sector Outcomes?”, Frederick Amissah defended the government’s economic record, arguing that the turnaround in key macroeconomic indicators is too significant to be dismissed.
“If you look at the numbers, how they’ve been turned around, I mean from day to night,” Mr Amissah told the panel.
His comments come amid a widening debate over whether the government’s macroeconomic gains are translating into meaningful relief for citizens and businesses. While official data point to a sharp improvement in inflation, interest rates and credit conditions, many households still face pressure from the cost of living, while businesses continue to complain about weak demand and tight operating margins.
Mr Amissah anchored his argument on the sharp decline in borrowing costs, pointing to the Ghana Reference Rate, the benchmark used by banks in pricing loans to their best customers.
According to him, the rate had fallen to 10 per cent in April 2026, from 11.71 per cent in March, compared with levels of about 30 per cent not long ago.
“Ghana Reference Rate, which is the proxy for determining how banks are willing to lend to their best customers, was even around 30 per cent as we speak, it is 10 per cent,” he said. “Businesses are borrowing at a cheaper cost.”
The decline in the reference rate reflects a broader easing in monetary conditions. Average bank lending rates reportedly declined to 22.2 per cent, compared with 30.5 per cent in the same period in 2024, while private sector credit growth recovered from a 7.1 per cent contraction in May 2025 to 5.4 per cent growth by October 2025, according to data cited during the discussion.
The Finance Ministry adviser also pointed to easing price pressures as evidence that the stabilisation process is beginning to reach the market. He cited a paper presented by the Ghana Union of Traders Association to Parliament, which showed that more than 4,000 commodity lines had recorded actual price reductions, rather than merely slower price increases.
Ghana’s headline inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March 2026, marking its lowest level since the 2021 rebasing exercise and the 15th consecutive month of disinflation since January 2025.
The sharp fall in inflation marks a major reversal from the crisis years, when inflation surged above 50 per cent and the cedi came under intense pressure.
But Mr Amissah acknowledged that improved macroeconomic indicators do not automatically translate into immediate relief at the market, the fuel pump or inside business boardrooms.
“The first thing we did was to stabilise the economy,” he said. “The path to the impact on the microeconomy is through the macroeconomy. That is what we are experiencing now.”
That argument captures the central tension in Ghana’s recovery story. On paper, the macroeconomic adjustment is increasingly visible: inflation has fallen sharply, lending conditions have eased, and business credit is recovering. But at the household level, the recovery remains uneven, with many citizens yet to feel a decisive improvement in purchasing power.
For businesses, lower borrowing costs could provide breathing space after years of expensive credit and weak demand. However, the transmission of lower rates into actual loan access will depend on bank risk appetite, business confidence and the strength of consumer spending.
The Finance Ministry’s position is that stabilisation was the necessary first step, as he pointed out. The more difficult phase now is converting improved macroeconomic credibility into stronger private sector investment, job creation and sustained income growth.
For the government, the political test is therefore no longer only whether the macro numbers are improving. It is whether the recovery can move quickly enough from official indicators into market stalls, factory floors, transport fares, wages and household budgets.
