- One Bond Carries Nearly Half of GFIM Turnover in Mixed October 16 Session
Trading on the Ghana Fixed Income Market ended the week with a revealing contradiction: less money changed hands, yet considerably more transactions were completed. Total turnover declined to GH¢938.69 million on Friday, October 16, from GH¢1.019 billion a day earlier, but the number of trades jumped from 306 to 467. Beneath those headline figures, one restructured government bond accounted for almost half the entire market, showing that stronger activity did not necessarily produce broader liquidity.
The session therefore offered two different readings of investor behaviour. By transaction count, participation expanded and Treasury bills remained the market’s busiest segment. By value, however, trading was concentrated in Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds, particularly the February 2032 maturity. This distinction matters because a market can appear highly active while still depending on a small number of large institutional transactions.
Overall turnover fell by GH¢80.71 million, or 7.92 per cent, from Thursday’s level. Yet transactions increased by 161, representing growth of 52.61 per cent. The average value per trade consequently dropped to about GH¢2.01 million from GH¢3.33 million.
DDEP bonds generated GH¢627.76 million across 40 trades, equal to 66.88 per cent of total turnover. Their value declined by GH¢78.57 million, or 11.12 per cent, from GH¢706.33 million on Thursday, although the number of transactions rose from 31. The segment thus remained decisive even as its aggregate contribution softened.
It recorded GH¢447.03 million through 14 trades, representing 71.21 per cent of DDEP activity and 47.62 per cent of the market’s entire turnover. On Thursday, the same security led trading with GH¢400 million across only two transactions. Its closing yield fell by 45 basis points to 14.46 per cent, while its price increased to 80.4780 from 79.0758.
That combination of higher traded value, a stronger price and a lower yield points to concentrated demand for the longer restructured maturity. It may reflect institutional repositioning, portfolio matching or confidence that the compensation offered by the bond remains attractive. Still, the scale of the transaction concentration limits how confidently the movement can be interpreted as a market-wide reassessment of Ghanaian duration risk.
Yield movements across the DDEP curve were mixed. The February 2027 bond closed 55 basis points lower at 10.25 per cent, while the February 2028 security fell 65 basis points to 12.29 per cent. The February 2029 bond edged two basis points higher to 14 per cent, and the February 2030 maturity was unchanged at 14.23 per cent. Farther out, the February 2031 yield rose 28 basis points to 14.52 per cent, while the heavily traded 2032 bond declined to 14.46 per cent.
The uneven pattern suggests investors were selecting particular maturities rather than executing a uniform duration trade. Demand was strongest where specific securities offered suitable pricing, liquidity or portfolio characteristics. A truly broad rally would normally produce more consistent yield compression across the curve. Friday instead showed that Ghana’s restructured bond market is liquid at selected points but still vulnerable to distortions created by large individual orders.
Treasury bills provided the market’s breadth. The segment recorded GH¢302.17 million across 412 trades, accounting for 32.19 per cent of turnover but 88.22 per cent of all transactions. Compared with Thursday, bill turnover declined by GH¢10.44 million, or 3.34 per cent, while the trade count surged from 272. Investors therefore executed more frequent but smaller bill transactions, reinforcing the short end’s role as the market’s accessible liquidity and cash-management centre.
The largest Treasury-bill line attracted GH¢63.18 million across four trades and closed at a yield of about 5.65 per cent. Thursday’s leading bill generated GH¢101.12 million across eight trades at a closing yield of roughly 8.82 per cent. Because these were different maturities, the figures should not be read as a direct daily yield shift.
Outside sovereign securities, activity improved but remained marginal. Corporate-bond turnover climbed from GH¢440,200 to GH¢4.47 million, spread across six trades. The leading corporate instrument, a CalBank bond maturing in August 2027, contributed GH¢2.47 million. Commercial paper returned with one GH¢150,000 transaction, while sell-buyback activity increased sharply from GH¢19,886 to GH¢3.94 million across seven trades.
Those gains did little to alter the market’s sovereign dominance. Government-related instruments, including DDEP bonds, Treasury bills, the new government bond and sell-buyback transactions, accounted for approximately 99.51 per cent of total value. Corporate bonds and commercial paper together represented less than one-half of one per cent. The imbalance underlines the continuing difficulty of building a deeper private debt market when government securities absorb nearly all secondary-market liquidity.
Only GH¢200,000 traded in the new September 2030 government bond, through a single transaction. Its yield declined from an opening 11.58 per cent to 11.35 per cent, but the limited volume makes that signal fragile. Old government notes and bonds recorded no trades for a second consecutive session, confirming that liquidity remains concentrated in Treasury bills, restructured bonds and selected newer instruments.
The outlook will depend on whether the market can convert rising transaction numbers into broader value distribution. Friday’s 52.61 per cent increase in trades is encouraging because it indicates more frequent price discovery. However, nearly half of turnover sitting in one security means the apparent depth could disappear if large institutional orders retreat.
Investors will also watch whether falling yields in the 2027, 2028 and 2032 DDEP maturities persist, and whether demand spreads to the undertraded parts of the curve. Sustained improvement would require repeatable two-way trading, narrower concentration and greater corporate issuance, not merely isolated block deals.
Friday’s session ultimately showed a market that is active, functional and capable of processing substantial positions, but still structurally narrow. Ghana’s fixed-income market ended below the GH¢1 billion mark, yet with more trades and clear demand at selected maturities. The next test is whether that activity develops into genuine depth across issuers, instruments and the yield curve.
