- Premier League Weekend: Forest, Sunderland and Manzambi in Focus
Lewis Jones is tipping a weekend of Premier League surprises, with Nottingham Forest to beat Manchester City and Sunderland to trouble Chelsea among his most striking predictions.
The selections, published ahead of the weekend fixtures, place unusual weight on timing, workload and match-specific data. Jones argues that the final round before an international break can unsettle the formbook, especially for teams whose players have endured heavy schedules.
His strongest upset call is Forest to win at 7/2, while he also backs Sunderland at 5/2 against Chelsea and expects Aston Villa’s Johan Manzambi to score or assist against Manchester United. The score predictions and odds reflect the page’s publication and may change.
The Forest–City argument centres on accumulated fatigue. Jones notes that it would be Manchester City’s ninth game in a month, following an international break in which some players featured four times in 10 days.
The concern is not simply the number of fixtures: repeated travel and limited recovery can reduce sharpness, affecting pressing, decision-making and the ability to sustain intensity.
Jones also points to previous pre-break results that defied expectations, including Brentford’s 2–1 win at City in 2022–23 and Ipswich’s victory over Tottenham in 2024–25. His broader statistic is that backing every odds-on favourite in this particular pre-break round over the previous five seasons would have lost 3.4 units.
That record is a warning against treating favourites as automatic selections, rather than evidence that upsets are certain. City’s workload is one factor; Forest’s own performance is another.
Jones says their expected-points record suggests they should have collected nine more points than they have. If that measure reflects missed chances rather than deeper weaknesses, Forest may be due a more favourable result. He predicts a 2–1 home win.
The risk in the call is that expected points do not guarantee future improvement. A team can underperform its underlying numbers because of poor finishing, defensive lapses or a persistent inability to manage games.
For Forest, the question is whether the data signals a coming correction or merely describes chances that have already gone unused.
Jones’ pick in Sunderland’s meeting with Chelsea rests more heavily on home conditions and the hosts’ record against leading sides. Sunderland have conceded an average of 1.04 goals per home match since promotion, he says, and have beaten Newcastle, held Arsenal and City, and defeated Chelsea 2–1 on the final day of last season. He expects Sunderland to win by the same score.
The prediction recognises the value of the underdog’s setting: a home crowd, a team comfortable without controlling possession and an opponent still facing questions about consistency in difficult matches.
Yet Chelsea’s status as favourites reflects their own quality, and a previous home win does not determine the next meeting. Sunderland will need to turn their defensive resilience into enough attacking threat to make the upset possible.
At Manchester United, Jones focuses on Villa forward Johan Manzambi. He says the player has registered a goal or assist every 81 minutes in the Premier League this season, and that the relevant scoring or assisting selection has landed in all six league starts.
Jones also points to Manzambi’s developing partnership with Nicolas Jackson and his goal contributions for club and country last season.
The pick is supported by the weakness Jones sees in United’s defence: they have gone nine league matches without a clean sheet and have struggled for consistency and control. He backs Manzambi to score or assist at 13/8 and predicts a 2–1 Villa win.
The bet depends on a young player’s current involvement continuing against an opponent whose defensive record offers an opening. It remains a forecast, not a certainty.
Elsewhere, the preview looks to disciplinary markets. For Leeds against Tottenham, Jones recommends over 4.5 total cards at 5/6, citing referee John Brooks’ average of 4.75 cards per game and the 4.8-card average across the last 17 Saturday 12.30pm Premier League kick-offs. He predicts a 2–1 Leeds win.
For Arsenal’s match against Hull, the article sees little value in backing the home side at 1/7 and instead recommends Hull to receive more than 2.5 cards at 8/5. Jones says Hull have averaged three cards per away game across competitions since manager Sergej Jakirovic took charge, with a 2.8 average in the league. He expects Arsenal to win 2–0.
Fulham–Newcastle brings a player-focused selection: Calvin Bassey to record three or more foul involvements at 5/6. Jones says the line has landed in each of the defender’s last five matches, linking the trend to Bassey’s aggressive one-on-one defending. His predicted score is 2–1 to Fulham.
The other match calls include a 2–2 draw between Everton and Coventry, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score priced at 10/11. Jones cites an average of 3.76 goals across the last 17 Friday-night Premier League fixtures, 12 of which produced more than 2.5 goals.
For Brighton–Brentford, he predicts 1–1 and backs Brentford on the double chance with both teams to score, pointing to Brentford’s record of scoring in all nine league matches this season.
He also predicts Liverpool to win 2–1 at Crystal Palace, with Alexis Mac Allister backed to score at 7/2. Palace have conceded 21 goals in nine league games, while Mac Allister has taken 12 shots across his last four matches, Jones says.
Ipswich are tipped to lose 2–1 to Bournemouth, with defender Dara O’Shea to be booked at 9/2, based on striker Evanilson’s record of drawing yellow cards from opponents.
Across the selections, the common thread is a search for value beyond the match-result market: cards, fouls, player contributions and goals. Those bets rely on narrow conditions and can be especially sensitive to team selection, refereeing decisions and the flow of a match.
Jones’ weekend case is therefore less a claim that the underdogs must win than an argument that fatigue, home performance and player-level data may make some favourites less secure than their prices suggest.
The strongest calls are Forest against City and Sunderland against Chelsea, while Manzambi’s involvement offers a player-based route into the Manchester United–Villa fixture. Whether those angles pay off will depend on the weekend’s events; the data offers a framework for the predictions, not a guarantee of their outcome.
