- Seeds, Technology and Capital Rise, But Africa’s Farmers Remain Short of Prosperity
Africa has spent the past two decades building much of the infrastructure needed for a more modern food economy, from stronger seed companies and agricultural research institutions to digital farming platforms, regional trade networks and new pools of investment capital. But the continent’s agricultural transformation remains incomplete because those gains have not translated into sufficient prosperity for the farmers at the centre of the system.
That is the central conclusion of a new Impact, Learning and Foresight Report by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, which argues that the success of Africa’s food systems should ultimately be judged by what farmers earn rather than simply by the number of programmes, technologies and institutions created around them.
The report, Africa’s agrifood system transformation and the path ahead, draws on two decades of evidence, independent evaluations, research, outcome assessments and consultations with governments, funders, researchers and private-sector actors. Its assessment is not that Africa has failed to make progress, but that the continent has yet to convert substantial institutional and technological gains into a consistently profitable farming economy.
“Africa’s food systems must be judged by what farmers earn,” the report said, setting a much harder benchmark for agricultural policy than traditional measures such as seed distribution, fertiliser use, extension coverage or the number of farmers connected to digital platforms.
The progress recorded since AGRA was established in 2006 is considerable. Two decades ago, breeding capacity across much of sub-Saharan Africa had been weakened and there were only about 12 private African seed companies outside South Africa, compared with several hundred national seed businesses today, averaging roughly 20 per country.
Drought-tolerant maize has expanded from about 500,000 hectares in 2010 to approximately 8.5 million hectares, while national agricultural research systems have been strengthened. Input markets have also become more accessible, with fertiliser use rising from roughly 8kg per hectare two decades ago to between 17kg and 22kg per hectare across the continent.
Farmers are also increasingly able to obtain quality inputs within about 10km of where they operate, compared with distances exceeding 15km previously. The growth of crop- and soil-specific fertiliser blends has added another layer of sophistication to efforts to improve productivity and use agricultural inputs more efficiently.
Digitalisation has further transformed the landscape. More than 33 million farmers are now registered to access digital agricultural services, while over 10 million farming households receive extension and related services through full-service outgrower models.
Yet AGRA’s central warning is that “the gains have not added up to transformation”. Yields remain below levels required to meet Africa’s ambitions, farmer incomes remain below global averages and, in the report’s assessment, farmers are “not yet prospering”.
That gap between productivity and profitability may be the most important policy challenge emerging from the report. A farmer may gain access to improved seed and still struggle if fertiliser is too expensive, while higher yields can produce little financial benefit if prices collapse at harvest or if storage, transport and market access remain weak.
The implication is that Africa’s agricultural problem is increasingly less about whether individual interventions exist and more about whether they work together. Research, production, finance, aggregation, processing, logistics and market access must reinforce one another if productivity gains are to translate into higher and more stable farmer incomes.
That argument also puts greater focus on the businesses operating between the farm and the consumer. AGRA notes that agricultural small and medium-sized enterprises, once largely overlooked in policy debates, now move about 65.00% of food consumed in Africa and account for between 30.00% and 40.00% of value added across food chains.
The movement of food from rural areas to African cities has increased roughly ninefold over the past two decades, reflecting rapid urbanisation and the commercialisation of food distribution. That creates a growing market for farmers, processors, transport companies, retailers and agricultural technology businesses, but a larger food economy does not automatically guarantee producers a greater share of the value created.
Regional trade offers another route to stronger farm economics. Intra-African agrifood trade has increased from approximately US$5.40 billion two decades ago to about US$17.00 billion, while overall trade in food and agricultural products between African countries nearly tripled between 2003 and 2023.
Processed products now represent about 46.00% of intra-African agrifood trade, suggesting the continent is gradually moving beyond a model focused overwhelmingly on the movement of raw agricultural commodities. The African Continental Free Trade Area could accelerate that shift by creating larger markets for processors and producers if barriers to cross-border trade continue to fall.
That transition matters because processing can create more employment, generate additional domestic value and provide farmers with more dependable markets. But its contribution to agricultural transformation will ultimately depend on whether producers are integrated into those value chains on terms that improve their own profitability.
Agriculture’s long-standing reputation as an unattractive or “unbankable” sector is also beginning to change. The report points to the growth of agricultural investment funds, blended-finance structures, specialised platforms and digital financial tools including mobile money and electronic vouchers.
Since 2013, more than US$1.80 billion in venture capital has flowed into African agrifood technology, a market that was effectively non-existent two decades ago. The arrival of capital is important, but the next test is whether investment produces commercially sustainable businesses while generating higher returns for farmers and the wider agricultural value chain.
AGRA warns that the continent’s present trajectory will not be sufficient to deliver the Kampala Declaration and CAADP 3.0 targets by 2035. Africa therefore faces a choice between continuing to scale individual programmes and measure progress through inputs and participation, or adopting a more integrated approach centred on economic outcomes.
The continent starts from a considerably stronger position than it did 20 years ago. It has more seed companies, better agricultural research, wider access to inputs, larger food businesses, greater digital connectivity, stronger regional trade and a growing agricultural investment ecosystem.
The weakness is that those pieces have not yet produced a sufficiently productive and profitable whole. AGRA’s report is therefore less an indictment of the progress already made than a warning against mistaking the construction of agricultural infrastructure for the completion of agricultural transformation.
For governments and development institutions, the implication is that farmer income must move much closer to the centre of policy design. For investors, agricultural business models will increasingly need to demonstrate that returns can be generated without leaving producers economically vulnerable.
Africa’s agricultural transformation will therefore be judged by a simpler and ultimately more demanding measure than the number of programmes implemented or technologies deployed. The test is whether farming itself becomes a viable route to prosperity.
That means the most important question is no longer how many farmers receive improved seed, how many are registered on digital platforms or how much fertiliser is distributed. It is whether those interventions ultimately leave farmers earning more from the land.
For AGRA, that is where two decades of agricultural progress must now prove its economic value.
