- South Africa Refinery Trouble, Namibia Fuel Crisis Put Regional Aviation Resilience Under Scrutiny
Southern Africa’s aviation sector is confronting a growing fuel-security problem after separate disruptions in Namibia and South Africa exposed how quickly refinery outages, quality failures and thin supply buffers can threaten airline operations across the region.
South African airlines have begun making contingency arrangements after problems at the Natref refinery in Sasolburg raised concerns over available jet-fuel supplies, particularly for Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport, the country’s largest aviation hub.
The latest disruption follows planned maintenance at Natref that was compounded by a technical problem, prompting South African energy authorities to convene an emergency meeting with Airports Company South Africa and the Fuels Industry Association of Southern Africa.
FlySafair, South Africa’s largest domestic airline, has already secured additional fuel from alternative suppliers and is using fuel tankering on some routes. Under that arrangement, aircraft depart with more fuel than they ordinarily would so that they require less refuelling at destinations where supply may be constrained.
There were no reports of widespread flight cancellations as of Wednesday, but the episode has again highlighted the vulnerability of one of Africa’s most developed aviation markets to disruptions at a relatively small number of critical fuel-production assets
Natref has crude refining capacity of about 108,000 barrels per day and is one of only two conventional crude refineries currently operating in South Africa, alongside Astron Energy’s Cape Town facility. That concentration means operational problems at a single refinery can quickly become a wider transport and economic issue.
The risk is particularly acute for O.R. Tambo because of the scale of fuel required to sustain a major international hub. South Africa received an early warning in January 2025 when a fire at Natref halted production and threatened jet-fuel supplies to the airport.
At the time, O.R. Tambo was consuming approximately 3.60 million litres of jet fuel every day and initially had fewer than eight days of stock available. Authorities, airport officials and fuel companies eventually secured 121.10 million litres of replacement fuel to maintain operations until the refinery restarted.
Some of that fuel had to be imported through Durban before being transported inland by rail and pipeline, illustrating how a refinery problem can quickly become a complicated logistics exercise involving ports, storage infrastructure and inland transport networks.
The latest disruption therefore raises a broader question about the resilience of aviation-fuel supply chains.
Airlines can protect themselves temporarily by purchasing fuel from alternative suppliers or carrying additional fuel between airports, but those measures are ultimately contingency tools rather than substitutes for reliable supply infrastructure.
Fuel tankering, for example, can keep flights operating but also means aircraft carry additional weight, which can increase fuel consumption and operating costs.
South Africa’s warning comes less than a week after neighbouring Namibia experienced a separate aviation-fuel shortage after a cargo of jet fuel failed quality checks at Walvis Bay and was prevented from entering the supply system.
That incident forced Lufthansa-owned Discover Airlines to reroute some flights from Windhoek through Luanda in Angola so aircraft could refuel before continuing to Europe. Lufthansa Cargo also temporarily suspended some services.
One arose from fuel-quality problems at a port, while the other stems from disruption at a refinery.
But together they reveal the same underlying weakness: Southern African aviation remains highly exposed when even one important component of the fuel supply chain fails.
That vulnerability is especially significant because airlines are already dealing with elevated fuel costs.
FlySafair has recently increased fuel surcharges following rises in international jet-fuel prices. Fuel represents one of the largest components of airline operating expenses, meaning carriers face a double risk when both price and physical availability come under pressure.
A shortage can force airlines to source more expensive replacement supplies, tanker fuel from other airports, alter schedules or reroute aircraft through alternative hubs.
If disruptions persist, some of those costs may eventually be passed to passengers through higher fares and surcharges, while airlines operating on narrow margins could see profitability weakened.
Reliable aviation-fuel supply is part of the infrastructure supporting tourism, trade, business travel, cargo movement and regional connectivity.
O.R. Tambo is not simply an airport serving Johannesburg. It is one of Africa’s most important international gateways and a major connecting hub for travel across the continent.
A prolonged fuel disruption there could therefore have implications far beyond South Africa.
The same is true, on a smaller scale, for Windhoek, where the requirement to route aircraft through Angola demonstrated how fuel shortages can alter international flight economics and schedules even when airport infrastructure itself remains operational.
The incidents expose an infrastructure problem that can easily be overlooked because jet fuel normally reaches aircraft without attracting attention.
Aviation depends not only on runways, terminals and aircraft but also on refineries, import facilities, quality-control systems, storage tanks, pipelines, rail links and road transport capable of moving fuel reliably between ports, production centres and airports.
For governments, that means fuel security increasingly needs to be viewed as part of aviation policy rather than simply as an energy-sector issue.
Strategic storage, diversified import routes, adequate reserve stocks and redundancy in refinery and logistics infrastructure can reduce the risk that a single disruption turns into a passenger crisis.
South Africa’s ability in 2025 to mobilise more than 121.00 million litres of replacement supply demonstrated that contingency systems can work.
But repeated emergencies also raise questions about whether the underlying system is sufficiently resilient.
The immediate outlook will depend on how quickly normal operations at Natref are restored and whether airlines and suppliers can continue securing sufficient fuel elsewhere.
For now, South African airlines appear to be containing the disruption. But the timing, coming so soon after Namibia’s shortage, provides a warning for the wider region.
Southern Africa’s aviation challenge is no longer only the high price of jet fuel.
It is ensuring that the fuel is physically available, meets required standards and can reach airports reliably when a refinery, port or logistics route fails.
Until that resilience is built into the regional supply chain, individual fuel disruptions will continue to carry the potential to become broader aviation and economic problems.
