- S&P Affirms Ghana’s Ratings With Stable Credit Outlook
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at “B-/B” with a stable outlook, signalling that the country’s economic recovery remains intact but is not yet strong enough to deliver another upgrade.
The agency maintained the ratings on Ghana’s foreign- and local-currency obligations and also affirmed its “B-” transfer and convertibility assessment.
The decision reflects the improving external position produced by stronger gold exports, economic resilience and continuing fiscal reforms. But it also exposes the unresolved risks beneath Ghana’s recovery, particularly high debt-servicing costs, the weakened financial position of the Bank of Ghana and the fiscal burden associated with the Ghana Gold Board.
S&P said the expansion of Ghana’s gold sector had strengthened the country’s external metrics, while the economy had shown relative resilience despite the effects of the conflict in the Middle East.
The agency also recognised the government’s continuing fiscal reforms, now supported by a new 36-month, non-funded Policy Coordination Instrument with the International Monetary Fund.
The stable outlook means S&P does not presently expect a rating change in either direction. It is not, however, an endorsement that Ghana’s credit risks have disappeared.
A “B-” long-term rating remains firmly within speculative, or non-investment-grade, territory. It indicates that Ghana currently has the capacity to meet its financial obligations but remains vulnerable to adverse economic, financial or external shocks.
The rating therefore marks distance travelled since the 2022 debt default, rather than completion of the recovery.
S&P upgraded Ghana from “CCC+/C” to “B-/B” in November 2025 after stronger exports, improved reserves and greater fiscal discipline strengthened the sovereign’s credit profile. The latest affirmation suggests those improvements have held, but have not yet become sufficiently durable to warrant another upward move.
Gold has become central to Ghana’s post-crisis economic architecture. Increased formal exports have generated non-debt foreign exchange, strengthened the balance of payments and supported the accumulation of international reserves.
That model has helped reduce Ghana’s immediate external vulnerability. Yet S&P’s assessment suggests that the same gold strategy now presents fiscal and institutional risks that must be managed more transparently.
The agency expressed concern that the Bank of Ghana’s financial position had been weakened by the rapid accumulation of foreign-currency reserves through gold transactions, requiring significant recapitalisation.
It also warned that “the fiscal costs of the Ghana Gold Board are likely to remain elevated”.
This is an important qualification to the argument that rising gold exports automatically represent an unambiguous improvement in Ghana’s economic position.
GoldBod may generate foreign exchange and bring previously informal gold exports into official channels. But if the system requires the state, the central bank or another public institution to absorb significant trading, financing or exchange-rate costs, then part of the external-sector gain may reappear as a fiscal liability.
The strength of Ghana’s gold strategy must therefore be judged not only by the volume of exports or foreign exchange generated, but also by the full cost of obtaining those inflows and which public institution ultimately bears that cost.
The IMF has similarly identified operational costs, transparency and macroeconomic risks as critical issues for Ghana’s expanding domestic gold-purchase system.
S&P warned that Ghana’s ratings could be lowered over the next 12 to 18 months if the government’s ability to refinance maturing debt became strained.
That could happen through “rising deficits due to fiscal slippage or worsening performance at the Bank of Ghana or SOEs such as GoldBod”, the agency said.
A downgrade could also follow materially higher public debt or debt-servicing costs, weakening export volumes or less favourable prices for gold, cocoa and oil.
“We could also downgrade Ghana if terms of trade or export volumes deteriorate, causing Ghana’s external financing needs and its external indebtedness to increase,” S&P said.
The agency added that it could lower the rating if the remaining debt-restructuring process stalled because creditors failed to agree on comparability-of-treatment principles under the G20 Common Framework.
These risks illustrate the narrowness of Ghana’s recovery path. The country is benefiting from elevated gold exports and stronger fiscal management, but its ability to absorb another major external shock remains limited.
A fall in commodity prices, renewed cedi instability or higher oil-import costs could weaken the balance of payments and raise the domestic cost of servicing foreign-currency debt.
For investors, the affirmation reduces the immediate risk of a negative rating action and confirms that Ghana has moved beyond the most acute phase of its debt crisis.
It does not mean the country can return immediately to the international capital market on favourable terms.
At “B-”, Ghana would still face a substantial risk premium. Any return to Eurobond borrowing must therefore be measured against the danger of rebuilding the expensive external debt structure that contributed to the 2022 crisis.
The more important question is whether Ghana can convert temporary advantages — high gold earnings, improved reserves and restrained expenditure — into lasting institutional reforms.
That will require transparent reporting of GoldBod’s full fiscal costs, credible recapitalisation of the Bank of Ghana, control of state-owned enterprise liabilities and sustained primary budget surpluses.
S&P’s stable outlook is consequently best read as a holding position. Ghana is no longer moving backwards, but the evidence is not yet strong enough to conclude that the sovereign has secured a decisive escape from its debt vulnerabilities.
The next upgrade will depend less on declarations of recovery than on whether the government can demonstrate that its stronger reserves, fiscal discipline and gold-export gains can survive weaker commodity prices and renewed global volatility.
Until then, the “B-/B” rating remains both a recognition of Ghana’s progress and a warning about how quickly that progress could be reversed.
