What is the Earliest Point that Max Verstappen Could Win the 2024 Drivers’ Championship?
As the 2024 Formula 1 season approaches its finale, the championship battles remain intense. Max Verstappen is facing off against Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings, while McLaren is being pursued by Ferrari in the constructors’ race. Verstappen secured his third title in 2023 at the Qatar Sprint, with five rounds still to go. So, how soon could he clinch the championship this year, and what does Norris need to do to surpass him? Here’s what you need to know.
How Many Points Are Available in the Drivers’ Championship?
There are a maximum of 120 points up for grabs in the remaining four races. To achieve this, a driver must win all four Grands Prix (each worth 25 points), win both Sprints in São Paulo and Qatar (earning 8 points each), and secure an additional point for the fastest lap in every race.
When Can Verstappen Win the Title?
Mathematically, Verstappen could secure the drivers’ championship as early as the Las Vegas Grand Prix. For this to happen, he must score maximum points in São Paulo and Las Vegas, while Norris needs to finish without scoring. This scenario would give Verstappen a 106-point lead heading into the final two races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
What Does Norris Need to Beat Verstappen?
If Norris and Verstappen finish every remaining race in a one-two formation—with Norris ahead—the title race would extend to Abu Dhabi. In this case, Verstappen would have a 24-point lead going into the final race, and if they again finish one-two, Verstappen would win by 17 points. Norris needs to outscore Verstappen consistently to keep his championship hopes alive and has to find opportunities to close the points gap significantly. He managed to gain ground at the Mexico City Grand Prix, reducing the deficit to 47 points.
Can Norris Continue His Pursuit?
The only other drivers still mathematically in contention are Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. Leclerc is currently 71 points behind Verstappen, while Piastri trails by 111 points. With 120 points available in the final rounds, Piastri would need to maximize his points while hoping Verstappen, Norris, and Leclerc score minimally. Leclerc has a slim chance, bolstered by a recent strong performance.
What’s Happening in the Constructors’ Championship?
McLaren leads the constructors’ standings by 29 points over Ferrari, with 206 points available in the remaining races. If Ferrari were to score maximum points in São Paulo while McLaren finishes just behind, they would still trail by three points. If Ferrari can outscore McLaren in Las Vegas, they could take the lead. Conversely, if McLaren secures maximum points in both São Paulo and Las Vegas and Ferrari scores nothing, McLaren could clinch the title as early as Las Vegas.
Red Bull sits 54 points behind McLaren and 25 points behind Ferrari. They could potentially regain the lead if they score maximum points in São Paulo, provided McLaren and Ferrari underperform. Mercedes remains a distant fourth but is still mathematically in contention.
While it would be a monumental task for Norris or any rival to overtake Verstappen, history shows that dramatic comebacks are possible in Formula 1.
