What Will Decide the US Election and Why it’s so Close
Never in recent US political history has the outcome of a presidential been so in doubt – this is not a contest for the faint of heart.
While past elections have been narrowly decided – George W Bush’s 2000 victory over Al Gore came down to a few hundred votes in Florida – there’s always been some sense of which direction the race was tilting in the final days.
Sometimes, as in 2016, the sense is wrong. In that year, polls overestimated Hillary Clinton’s strength and failed to detect a late-breaking movement in Donald’s Trump favour.
This time around, however, the arrows are all pointing in different directions. No-one can seriously make a prediction either way.
A coin-toss
Most of the final polls are well within the margin of error, both nationally and in the seven key battleground states that will decide the election.
Based on statistics and sample sizes alone, that means either candidate could be ahead.
It is this uncertainty that vexes political pundits and campaign strategists alike.
There have been a smattering of surprises, not least a recent respected survey of Republican-leaning Iowa giving Harris a shock lead is one notable example.
But the major polling averages, and the forecasting models that interpret them, all show this as a coin-toss contest.
