- Will Early Warnings Reach Farmers Before Dry Spells Threaten their Livelihoods?
Ghana is preparing for possible climate disruption from a developing El Niño event, with the Ghana Meteorological Agency warning that risks could intensify from November 2026 into the first half of 2027.
The threats identified include prolonged dry spells, variable rainfall and higher temperatures, conditions that could affect agricultural production, water availability and farming livelihoods.
The warning is conditional: it describes risks that the event could worsen, not a certainty that every part of the country will experience drought or crop losses.
The distinction matters. Early preparation can reduce harm, but communities and public agencies need timely, useful information about where the risks are most likely and what actions are practical.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations is working with GMet, the National Disaster Management Organisation, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, District Assemblies and local communities to strengthen preparedness.
The initiative is supported financially by the governments of Canada and Norway. Its stated purpose is to help communities act before potential hazards translate into losses.
The effort has two connected parts: improving how institutions coordinate disaster risks and strengthening how climate information reaches those who need to use it.
At national level, FAO is working with NADMO to develop a National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy and Action Plan, alongside a National Early Warning and Anticipatory Action Stakeholder Platform. Both are described as mechanisms under development, intended to improve coordination and the production, sharing and use of warnings.
For farmers, the practical value of a forecast depends on whether it arrives early enough to influence decisions.
The release points to possible adjustments in planting in response to rainfall forecasts, protection of livestock during heat or water stress, and preparation of water resources.
These actions must be linked to information that is specific enough to guide choices, rather than warnings that simply describe a general national risk.
A farmer deciding when to plant needs to know more than that rainfall may be variable. The decision depends on local conditions, the likely timing of rains, access to seed and other inputs, and the capacity to change plans if the season starts differently from expectations.
The early-warning system will therefore be judged partly by whether weekly forecasts, seasonal outlooks and advisories reach farming communities in a clear and actionable form.
The release says partners are strengthening the dissemination and use of weekly weather forecasts, seasonal climate outlooks, hazard alerts and early-action advisories.
That range of products can help institutions and communities prepare for different time horizons: seasonal information can inform planning, while weekly updates may support more immediate decisions.
But distribution alone is not enough. The warnings have to be understood, trusted and connected to realistic actions.
This is where coordination between national agencies, District Assemblies and communities becomes decisive. A warning may identify a hazard, but local authorities and farmers need to know who is responsible for communicating it, what support is available and when a recommended action should be taken.
The National Early Warning and Anticipatory Action Stakeholder Platform is intended to strengthen coordination, but its impact will depend on how responsibilities and decision-making processes are put into practice.
The shift FAO describes is from responding to climate-related losses after they occur to preparing before hazards escalate. That can reduce the scale of damage, but it also requires institutions to act before the full effects are visible.
For example, protecting livestock from heat or water stress may require early access to water, shade or animal-health support. Adjusting planting plans may be difficult if farmers lack suitable alternatives or cannot afford to delay planting.
The announcement does not provide a breakdown of the geographic areas expected to face the greatest risks, the probability or severity of particular hazards, or the crops and farming systems considered most exposed.
It also does not state the amount of funding committed, the resources available to communities or the specific triggers that would prompt early action. Those details would help farmers and local authorities judge what preparations are needed and where assistance should be concentrated.
That information gap does not negate the value of preparing early. It highlights what needs to accompany the warning as the initiative develops: location-specific outlooks, clear thresholds for action, and communication suited to the communities expected to use the information.
It also raises the question of whether local institutions will have the practical resources to respond when alerts indicate an elevated risk.
The stated goals extend beyond the coming season. By 2027, the interventions are expected to contribute to stronger risk governance, better-prepared communities, reduced losses and damages, and stronger institutions able to anticipate and manage climate-related risks.
These are intended outcomes, not results already achieved. Their progress will depend on whether the strategy and platform are completed, whether agencies work together consistently and whether communities receive timely support.
El Niño is therefore both a climate risk and a test of Ghana’s preparedness systems. The challenge is to make warnings useful before prolonged dry spells, rainfall shifts or higher temperatures affect livelihoods.
That means connecting meteorological information to decisions on farms and at district level, while making clear who can act and what assistance is available.
The central test will come when forecasts point to a specific risk and communities must decide whether to change plans. Ghana’s preparations aim to make those decisions earlier and better informed.
Whether they reduce losses will depend on turning the emerging warning system into practical action on the ground.
