- 2026 Mid-Year Budget: ACEP, NRGI Demand Mineral Revenue Law as Gold Overtakes Oil
Ghana’s growing dependence on gold to stabilise the economy is creating a new governance test for the state, as falling crude oil production, opaque petroleum revenue flows and the absence of a dedicated mineral revenue management law expose deeper weaknesses in the country’s extractive-sector architecture.
The Africa Centre for Energy Policy and the Natural Resource Governance Institute have warned that while gold is increasingly supporting reserves, fiscal resilience and foreign exchange accumulation, the commodity boom cannot substitute for strong institutions, transparent revenue management and disciplined long-term planning.
Presenting a joint submission to the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, Kodzo Yaotse of ACEP said Ghana’s extractive economy is undergoing a major transition, with gold replacing petroleum as the principal anchor of export earnings and macroeconomic stability.
“Gold is increasingly performing the roles once expected of petroleum by supporting reserves, strengthening fiscal resilience and reducing vulnerability to external shocks,” Yaotse said. “The challenge now is to build institutions capable of managing that wealth sustainably.”
The warning is timely. Ghana’s macroeconomic position has been helped by strong gold exports and favourable prices, but ACEP and NRGI argue that the country risks mistaking a commodity price windfall for structural strength. Their central concern is that Ghana is becoming more reliant on mineral earnings without the legal and institutional safeguards needed to manage the revenues over the long term.
The contrast with petroleum is stark. According to the joint assessment, the 2026 Budget projected crude oil production at 37.95 million barrels, well below the 46.35 million barrels projected for 2025. The decline reflects weakening output from Ghana’s mature oil fields, diminishing reserves and slower upstream investment.
Although higher Brent crude prices lifted projected petroleum revenue from the budget estimate of US$985 million to about US$1.5 billion, ACEP and NRGI stressed that the improvement was not driven by stronger production.
“The current petroleum revenue gains represent a price windfall rather than a recovery in the industry’s fundamentals,” the organisations said.
That distinction matters. A price-driven revenue improvement may help the budget temporarily, but it does not resolve the underlying decline in reserves, investment and production capacity. If oil output continues to fall, Ghana’s petroleum revenue base will weaken further, leaving gold to carry a greater share of the external and fiscal burden.
The report also raises significant transparency concerns. ACEP and NRGI cited US$434.55 million in Annual Budget Funding Amount resources allocated to government’s Big Push infrastructure programme but reportedly still sitting unutilised in a suspense account. They called on government to provide a full account of the funds and disclose the implementation status of all ABFA-financed projects in line with the Petroleum Revenue Management Act.
The organisations also questioned the retention of US$561.65 million in petroleum revenues by Jubilee Oil Holdings Limited and Explorco outside the accountability mechanisms established under the PRMA. They urged the government to bring all petroleum revenues back within the statutory reporting framework.
The issue is not merely technical. Petroleum revenue transparency was one of the core reasons Ghana enacted the PRMA. If significant petroleum receipts are held or spent outside that framework, the credibility of the country’s resource governance model is weakened.
ACEP and NRGI further criticised the absence of a published investment policy for the Heritage Fund, particularly amid proposals to deploy petroleum savings into domestic energy and energy-transition infrastructure. They argued that any shift away from the Fund’s long-term savings mandate must be guided by a transparent policy framework setting out the economic rationale, project selection criteria, expected returns and risk controls.
The organisations also urged government to publish the long-awaited National Petroleum Revitalisation Strategy, expected to outline measures to arrest declining production, attract upstream investment and restore competitiveness in Ghana’s petroleum sector.
Their concerns extend beyond oil into the power sector. The report questioned government’s commitment to develop a new 1,200-megawatt thermal power plant, warning that, together with already contracted independent power projects, Ghana could add about 2,780 megawatts of new capacity without publicly available demand or fuel-supply analysis to justify the expansion.
That warning revives memories of costly excess-capacity arrangements that left the state with heavy take-or-pay obligations. ACEP and NRGI therefore called for detailed demand forecasts, financing arrangements and fuel-supply assessments before government proceeds with the project.
They also urged faster reforms at the Electricity Company of Ghana, arguing that delays in introducing private-sector participation continue to undermine operational efficiency and sustain the power sector’s fiscal burden.
But the most far-reaching recommendation concerns mining. ACEP and NRGI argue that Ghana’s gold boom has outpaced the governance framework built to manage it. Unlike petroleum, the country has no dedicated Mineral Revenue Management Act to govern how mineral revenues are collected, stabilised, saved and invested.
That gap is becoming more consequential as mining becomes more central to Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery. The organisations are therefore calling for legislation similar to the PRMA, with provisions for benchmark mineral revenues, stabilisation mechanisms, strategic investment windows and independent public oversight.
They also called for greater clarity on the mandate of the Minerals Income Investment Fund, warning that its evolving role has created uncertainty over whether it is primarily a sovereign wealth fund, a fiscal stabilisation vehicle or a strategic investment institution.
GoldBod also came under scrutiny. ACEP and NRGI said its expanding responsibilities in commodity trading, reserve accumulation, development finance and sector regulation require stronger transparency and clearly defined accountability arrangements.
The organisations further urged mandatory disclosure of beneficial ownership, transaction values and valuation benchmarks for transfers involving strategic mineral assets, particularly lithium projects.
On artisanal and small-scale mining, they noted that although the subsector accounts for a substantial share of gold production, its contribution to government revenue remains disproportionately low. They recommended simplified royalty and licensing arrangements, as well as full integration of artisanal miners into GoldBod’s reporting and aggregation systems.
The message from ACEP and NRGI is clear: Ghana’s gold boom is an opportunity, but it is not a governance strategy. Without stronger laws, clearer institutions and transparent revenue channels, the country could repeat in mining the same weaknesses that have limited the benefits of petroleum.
Gold may be cushioning the economy today. But if Ghana fails to build the right governance framework, the current boom could become another missed resource opportunity.
