- Ghana Has Enough Buffers to Keep Inflation Below 5% – Ato Forson
Ghana’s Finance Minister, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, has said inflation is unlikely to exceed 5 percent by the end of 2026, despite renewed global price pressures triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Dr Forson acknowledged that the conflict presents fresh risks for import-dependent economies such as Ghana, particularly through higher petroleum prices, fertiliser costs and disruptions to global supply chains.
“The challenge has to do with price increases,” he said, noting that fuel and agricultural inputs remain the key channels through which external shocks could feed into domestic inflation.
His comments come after Ghana’s disinflation trend paused in April, with headline inflation rising marginally to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent in March, ending 15 consecutive months of easing price pressures.
Despite the uptick, inflation remains well below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The Ministry of Finance had earlier noted that inflation declined sharply from 23.8 percent in December 2024 to 3.2 percent in March 2026, the lowest level since the 2021 rebasing.
Dr Forson argued that Ghana is better placed than in previous periods of external stress because the country has built stronger reserve buffers while benefiting from favourable commodity prices.
“The good news is that in Ghana, we do not have subsidies on petroleum products. But the good news is that we have built some significant reserves,” he said.
The minister added that rising gold production and elevated global gold prices are strengthening Ghana’s external position and helping to support foreign exchange liquidity for critical imports.
“Our gold production is also going up and gold prices are also very high. And so Ghana is in a comfortable position to be able to withstand those shocks,” he said.
Dr Forson nevertheless conceded that price pressures could intensify modestly in the coming months if higher energy and transport costs pass through the economy.
“Where I think we may see a bit of pressure will be on the back of inflation,” he said, adding, “I don’t think the country’s inflation will exceed 5 percent by the end of the year.”
The Finance Minister also pointed to stronger export earnings, including cocoa, gold and crude oil receipts, as stabilising factors for the cedi and domestic prices.
The Bank of Ghana has already signalled caution over the external environment. In its March 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the central bank warned that geopolitical developments in the Middle East could reverse the downward path of global inflation, particularly through higher crude oil prices.
That caution has shaped recent monetary policy. After earlier rate cuts, the central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 14 percent, citing renewed risks from higher crude oil prices and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
For Ghana, the Finance Minister’s confidence rests on a simple proposition: stronger reserves, improved export receipts and the absence of petroleum subsidies should reduce the fiscal and foreign exchange pressures that have historically amplified external shocks.
But the test will come if global oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period. A sustained rise in fuel prices could still filter into transport costs, food prices, fertiliser costs and general business expenses.
For now, however, government is betting that Ghana’s recent macroeconomic gains are strong enough to absorb the shock without allowing inflation to return to the double-digit levels that defined the country’s earlier cost-of-living crisis.
