- AI Investment Cushions Global Economy as Fitch Trims 2026 Growth Outlook
Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4 percent, citing the impact of higher inflation, weaker real wages, rising input costs and the continuing oil price shock on the world economy.
The revised forecast represents a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from the ratings agency’s March Global Economic Outlook, according to a report by Joy Business.
Fitch said the downgrade has been broad-based, with advanced economies bearing part of the strain as inflation continues to squeeze household purchasing power and dampen consumption.
“We have lowered 2026 growth forecasts since the March Global Economic Outlook in the US and eurozone by 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively to 1.9% to 0.9%,” the UK-based ratings firm said.
The reduction points to a more fragile global environment, with businesses facing higher input costs and consumers under pressure from price increases.
Growth in emerging markets excluding China has also been revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent.
China, however, remains one of the major exceptions in Fitch’s latest outlook. The ratings agency raised China’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.6 percent, citing stronger-than-expected first-quarter data and the resilience of Chinese exports.
Fitch also raised South Korea’s forecast, saying the country’s export outlook is benefiting from the boom in global technology spending.
The ratings agency said the impact of the oil shock on global activity is being partly offset by stronger-than-expected momentum in AI-related information technology investment, which is supporting world trade and Asian exports.
“The oil price shock is hitting world growth prospects and increasing downside risks. But we are also amid a very pronounced boom in global spending on IT and that is cushioning the impact on activity in the near term, particularly in Asia,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch.
He added that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now lasted 14 weeks, with Fitch assuming that reopening would not begin until July.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy route, and prolonged disruption has heightened concerns over oil supply, energy prices and inflationary pressure across importing economies.
For African economies, including Ghana, Fitch’s downgrade matters because weaker global growth can affect commodity demand, trade flows, financing conditions and investor risk appetite.
A prolonged oil price shock could also raise import costs for fuel-dependent economies, placing pressure on inflation, fiscal spending and foreign exchange demand.
At the same time, the resilience of technology-driven investment and stronger Asian exports shows that the global slowdown is uneven, with some sectors and regions still benefiting from structural demand linked to artificial intelligence, data infrastructure and digital transformation.
For policymakers, the warning is clear: the global economy is entering a more difficult phase, where energy shocks, inflation pressure and slower consumption could complicate efforts to sustain growth.
Fitch’s latest outlook suggests that while the AI investment boom may soften the blow, it is unlikely to fully offset the drag from higher energy prices and weakening demand across major economies.
