- Consumer Confidence Falls To 111.9 As Businesses Hold Firm At 107.8
Consumer confidence in Ghana weakened further in August 2026, even as business sentiment remained broadly stable, pointing to a widening gap between how households and firms perceive economic conditions.
The Bank of Ghana’s latest confidence survey shows the Consumer Confidence Index falling to 111.9 in August, from 112.7 in June and 113.4 in April. Business confidence, by contrast, stood at 107.8, virtually unchanged from 107.7 in June.
The decline in household sentiment marks a notable reversal from earlier in the year. Consumer confidence had risen to 117.7 in February, after recording 116.4 in December 2025, but has since moved lower through the year.
By August, the index was also below the 119.2 level recorded in June 2025 and 116.9 in August 2025.
Business sentiment has proved considerably more resilient. The Business Confidence Index stood at 110.1 in February before easing to 108.1 in April and 107.7 in June, then ticking marginally higher to 107.8 in August.
That relatively narrow movement suggests firms have become somewhat more cautious than at the beginning of the year, but have not experienced the same degree of deterioration visible among consumers.
The divergence is significant because household and business confidence often capture different dimensions of economic conditions. Consumers tend to be more sensitive to changes in living costs, purchasing power, employment expectations and household finances, while businesses are more directly influenced by sales expectations, financing conditions, input costs and investment prospects.
The Bank of Ghana’s published summary does not provide the underlying responses driving the August indices, so the precise reasons for the difference cannot be established from the data alone.
What the numbers do show is that softer consumer sentiment is occurring alongside relatively strong headline economic activity.
Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.00% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, while services grew 8.00%, industry 4.30% and agriculture 3.90%.
The Bank’s Real Composite Index of Economic Activity also recorded annual growth of 14.90% in July, suggesting that economic activity has remained robust even as households have become more cautious.
That contrast matters because strong GDP growth does not necessarily translate immediately into stronger household confidence.
Consumers respond to their own disposable income, cost pressures, job security and expectations about the months ahead rather than aggregate growth alone.
A growing economy can therefore coexist with weaker household sentiment if the benefits of expansion are not yet being felt evenly or if uncertainty remains elevated.
Inflation developments provide another part of the backdrop. Headline inflation stood at 5.00% in August, up from 3.20% in March, while non-food inflation had risen to 6.80% even as food inflation slowed to 3.00%.
The Bank of Ghana data do not directly link those movements to the confidence survey, but the rise in non-food inflation coincides with the period in which consumer sentiment weakened.
Exchange-rate movements may also form part of the broader environment facing households and firms. The cedi had depreciated 7.10% against the US dollar by the end of August and weakened further to a 9.50% year-to-date loss by September 18.
Currency depreciation can affect import costs and expectations, although the confidence data alone do not establish whether this was a significant factor behind the decline in consumer sentiment.
Businesses, meanwhile, may be drawing support from improving financing conditions. The average lending rate declined from 24.15% in August 2025 to 15.94% in August 2026, while the Ghana Reference Rate fell to 10.61%.
Private-sector credit also expanded strongly, with nominal credit growing 35.50% year-on-year in August and real private-sector credit increasing 29.00%.
The stability in business confidence therefore sits alongside easier borrowing conditions and stronger credit growth, even though firms continue to operate in an environment of exchange-rate volatility and changing demand conditions.
The index remaining above 100 does not by itself establish that all firms are optimistic, since the Bank’s summary does not provide the detailed survey distribution or sectoral breakdown.
It does, however, show that aggregate business sentiment has not deteriorated sharply through the middle of the year.
For consumers, the continued decline deserves closer attention precisely because household spending is an important component of domestic economic activity.
Confidence can influence decisions on discretionary purchases, borrowing and savings, meaning persistent weakness may eventually affect retail demand and businesses serving the domestic market.
The August reading does not yet demonstrate such an outcome, but it provides an early measure of household caution that can be tracked against subsequent consumption and growth data.
The difference between consumer and business sentiment also raises a broader question about the distribution of Ghana’s economic recovery.
GDP growth, falling lending rates and expanding private-sector credit point to improving macroeconomic conditions, yet households appear less confident than they were earlier in the year.
Whether that gap narrows will depend partly on whether the wider recovery translates into stronger purchasing power, income expectations and a more predictable cost environment.
For the Bank of Ghana, the survey adds another layer to the policy picture beyond inflation, growth and exchange rates.
Strong economic activity and resilient business confidence suggest the economy continues to expand, but declining consumer sentiment indicates that the recovery may not feel equally strong at household level.
The August data therefore leave policymakers with a mixed confidence signal: businesses are holding relatively steady, while consumers are becoming increasingly cautious.
