- Ghana’s Reserves Fall US$3.1bn in Five Months Despite US$8.86bn Trade Surplus
Ghana’s international reserves declined sharply between March and August 2026, even as the country generated a growing trade surplus on the back of strong gold, cocoa and crude oil exports.
Gross International Reserves fell to US$11.07 billion in August, from US$14.16 billion in March, representing a decline of US$3.09 billion—or 21.8%—in five months, according to the Bank of Ghana’s September 2026 Summary of Economic and Financial Data.
The decline accelerated between June and August, with reserves falling by US$1.87 billion from US$12.94 billion.
As a result, Ghana’s gross reserve import cover dropped from 5.7 months in March to 5.0 months in June and 4.2 months in August.
Although the August reserve position remained marginally above the US$10.92 billion recorded in August 2025, the rapid drawdown since the first quarter raises questions about the demands being placed on the country’s external buffers.
The figures present an apparent contradiction: Ghana is earning considerably more from exports and recording one of its strongest merchandise trade surpluses, yet the stock of foreign exchange reserves available to the central bank has been declining.
The deterioration is even more pronounced under the programme definition of Gross International Reserves, which excludes certain encumbered and less readily available assets.
Programme-defined reserves declined from US$12.24 billion in March to US$10.95 billion in June and US$9.05 billion in August.
This represents a US$3.19 billion fall or 26.1% within five months. Import cover under the programme definition consequently dropped from 4.9 months in March to 3.4 months in August.
Net International Reserves followed a similar trajectory, falling from US$11.87 billion in March to US$10.76 billion in June and US$8.69 billion in August.
The US$3.18 billion reduction in net reserves since March is particularly important because net reserves provide a clearer indication of the central bank’s foreign assets after accounting for specified external liabilities.
The fall does not necessarily mean Ghana faces an immediate external financing crisis. Gross reserves still provided more than four months of import cover in August, which remains above the conventional benchmark of three months frequently used to assess reserve adequacy.
The speed and scale of the decline, however, require explanation—particularly in an economy where confidence in the cedi, external debt obligations and the credibility of the monetary programme are closely linked to reserve accumulation.
The weakening reserve position occurred despite a significant improvement in merchandise trade.
Ghana’s exports reached US$22.44 billion during the first eight months of 2026, up from US$17.94 billion over the corresponding period of 2025. This represents an increase of US$4.50 billion, or approximately 25.1%.
Gold remained the dominant driver of export earnings.
Gold exports rose to US$14.86 billion from US$11.18 billion in the first eight months of 2025 an increase of US$3.68 billion, or almost 33%.
Gold alone accounted for roughly two-thirds of Ghana’s total merchandise export earnings during the period, reinforcing both its importance to the external sector and the economy’s growing exposure to developments in the precious-metals market.
Cocoa exports increased from US$2.47 billion to US$2.76 billion, while crude oil exports rose from US$1.83 billion to US$2.42 billion. Other exports declined slightly from US$2.46 billion to US$2.39 billion.
Imports also grew, but at a slower rate than exports.
Total imports increased by 20.8% to US$13.59 billion, from US$11.24 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. Oil imports climbed sharply by 47.5% to US$4.80 billion, while non-oil imports rose by approximately 10% to US$8.79 billion.
The result was a trade surplus of US$8.86 billion, compared with US$6.69 billion in August 2025. As a share of gross domestic product, the surplus widened from 5.9% to 6.7%.
The surplus was already US$8.69 billion in June, meaning it expanded by only about US$169 million between June and August despite a further US$4.14 billion in exports. The sharp rise in imports during those two months absorbed most of the additional export receipts.
A trade surplus does not automatically produce an equivalent increase in the central bank’s reserves.
Export proceeds may remain within commercial banks or private-sector accounts rather than pass through the Bank of Ghana. Foreign exchange can also leave the country through services payments, income transfers, debt servicing, profit repatriation and other financial-account transactions.
The central bank may additionally use reserves to meet public-sector foreign-exchange obligations or supply dollars to the domestic market. Changes in asset valuations and movements in earmarked funds can also affect the reported reserve position.
The current data do not provide a complete decomposition of the US$3.09 billion decline. It would therefore be premature to attribute the entire reduction to foreign-exchange market intervention or any single policy action.
Nevertheless, the divergence between a US$8.86 billion trade surplus and a US$3.09 billion reserve decline since March raises important policy questions.
How much foreign exchange has the Bank of Ghana sold into the market? How much has been used for external debt service, energy-related payments and other government obligations? How much of the decline reflects valuation or accounting changes? And how much of Ghana’s export income is being retained offshore or absorbed by private external payments?
Those details are necessary to determine whether the drawdown represents planned deployment of accumulated buffers or the beginning of a more persistent weakening in the country’s external position.
The value of the Bank of Ghana’s gold holdings stood at US$3.57 billion in August, down slightly from US$3.65 billion in June but above the US$3.04 billion recorded in March.
Physical gold holdings increased from 20.8 tonnes in March to 25.2 tonnes in August. However, they remained substantially below the 36 tonnes reported in August 2025.
The rise in holdings since the beginning of 2026 provides some support to the central bank’s reserve-diversification strategy. But gold cannot be treated as an automatic substitute for liquid foreign-exchange reserves, particularly where immediate dollar payments must be made.
The figures also demonstrate why attention must be paid to the composition, accessibility and liquidity of the reserves—not only the headline amount.
Ghana entered 2026 with improving external balances and stronger reserve buffers. By March, gross reserves had climbed to US$14.16 billion, with import cover of 5.7 months.
Five months later, nearly US$3.1 billion had been drawn down.
The country is not back at its weakest external position. August reserves remained slightly higher than a year earlier, while the trade account continues to provide substantial support.
But the cushion accumulated by March is being consumed rapidly. If the present pace persists without equally strong inflows, Ghana’s ability to absorb external shocks, manage seasonal foreign-exchange demand and moderate excessive cedi volatility could weaken.
The most urgent requirement is therefore transparency.
The Bank of Ghana should provide a clear reconciliation showing the principal sources of reserve accumulation and depletion. A strong trade surplus is encouraging, but it cannot by itself answer the central question confronting the external sector: why is Ghana selling more to the world while the central bank’s foreign-exchange buffer is shrinking?
