Energy Analyst Urges Upstream Policy Overhaul Amid Steep Fall in Petroleum Revenues
Energy analyst Ben Nsiah has called for an immediate overhaul of policies governing Ghana’s upstream petroleum industry following a sharp decline in crude oil lifting proceeds and total petroleum earnings, sparking concerns about weakening production levels, dwindling investor interest and uncertain future revenue streams.
Data from official sources indicate that crude oil lifting receipts dropped to US$198.25 million in the second half of 2025, compared to US$369.25 million recorded during the corresponding period in 2024—representing a decline of over 46 percent.
The fall forms part of a wider downturn in upstream sector performance. Nsiah estimates that Ghana’s petroleum revenues fell from about US$1.3 billion in 2024 to US$769 million in 2025, marking a 43 percent year-on-year decline.
“The petroleum revenue outturn for 2025 ranks among the weakest performances we have seen in the upstream sector,” Nsiah said during an interview.
He cautioned that the sharp drop points to underlying structural deficiencies within the industry, particularly reduced investment in exploration and field development.
“This situation should be deeply concerning to players within the petroleum upstream. There is an urgent need for deliberate and targeted measures to attract fresh capital for both exploration and development activities,” he stated.
Nsiah, who is also the Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE), emphasised that Ghana’s revenue challenges are increasingly linked to falling production volumes rather than adverse price movements on the global oil market.
“Prices may fluctuate, but higher production levels would significantly improve revenue outcomes. Even at stable prices, increased output translates directly into higher receipts,” he explained.
According to the analyst, crude oil production has declined markedly over recent years.
“An upstream sector that once produced about 70 million barrels is now producing roughly 35 million barrels,” he said, noting that Ghana has struggled to secure new upstream investments since 2019.
He argued that reversing the decline would require strong policy direction from the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition, particularly through reforms that enhance the effectiveness of the Petroleum Commission in attracting investors.
“The policy direction must come from the ministry, especially in empowering the Petroleum Commission to reassess regulatory frameworks and investment strategies that can make Ghana’s upstream more attractive,” Nsiah said, warning that the sector is “close to a comatose state.”
Nsiah further warned that sustained weakness in upstream activity could pose significant risks to the financial position of the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), whose ability to finance cash calls and new exploration projects depends largely on petroleum revenues.
“GNPC relies heavily on petroleum income. If the upstream sector continues to underperform, it will affect the corporation’s capacity to meet cash calls and fund exploration in areas such as the Volta Basin and offshore blocks,” he noted.
Without renewed capital injection into well development and frontier exploration, Nsiah cautioned that Ghana could face a prolonged decline in production and state revenues.
“Failure to develop existing wells and expand exploration will lead to further output declines. If production falls, revenues fall, and in the medium term GNPC itself will be severely affected—an outcome I believe Ghanaians would not want,” he added.
