- EY Backs Ghana’s Recovery but Urges Shift from Stability to Sustainable Growth
Ghana’s economic recovery is becoming more credible, but the government must sustain reforms, improve revenue collection and accelerate investment if recent macroeconomic gains are to produce lasting transformation, according to global professional services firm EY.
In its assessment of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, EY said stronger fiscal discipline, moderating inflation, resilient economic growth and improved external buffers had reinforced confidence in the country’s outlook.
The firm said the economy had moved decisively from crisis management towards reform execution, but cautioned that stability alone would not be enough to raise productivity, generate jobs and improve living standards.
EY observed that fiscal performance during the first half of 2026 was stronger than expected and was achieved without supplementary appropriations.
The result reflected tighter expenditure controls and a renewed commitment to fiscal prudence, reducing the risk that unplanned spending would undermine the government’s consolidation programme.
However, EY warned that fiscal discipline could not depend solely on restraining expenditure.
The government must also increase investment in infrastructure and other productivity-enhancing sectors while strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation to create sustainable fiscal space for development.
That balance is critical because excessive spending restraint can improve short-term fiscal indicators while weakening economic growth if capital projects, public infrastructure and essential services are delayed.
EY therefore urged the government to accelerate the execution of capital expenditure, arguing that infrastructure investment is necessary to improve productivity, stimulate private-sector activity and support employment.
The pace of public investment is especially important for construction, transport, energy and businesses that depend on government contracts and infrastructure development.
Delays in project execution can weaken economic demand and prevent the government from converting fiscal savings into productive assets.
Revenue performance was identified as another area of concern.
Although the government has introduced compliance and digitalisation measures, EY said several major revenue streams fell below their targets during the first half of the year.
Persistent revenue underperformance could constrain public investment and force the government to choose between additional borrowing, expenditure cuts and new tax measures.
EY’s assessment suggests that the government must improve tax administration, reduce leakages and broaden compliance without placing excessive pressure on businesses and individuals already operating within the formal tax system.
The firm also highlighted Ghana’s proposed transition from the International Monetary Fund’s Extended Credit Facility programme to a Policy Coordination Instrument.
EY described the proposed move as an important indication that the authorities intend to preserve reform momentum after the current IMF financing arrangement ends.
A Policy Coordination Instrument would allow the IMF to monitor Ghana’s economic programme and provide policy endorsement without directly disbursing funds.
Such a framework could support investor confidence by demonstrating continued commitment to fiscal discipline, debt sustainability and structural reforms.
Access to affordable financing remains a major constraint for businesses.
Although domestic interest rates have started to decline, EY said stronger monetary policy transmission would be needed to ensure that lower policy and market rates translate into cheaper credit for companies.
Businesses may not experience the full benefits of monetary easing where banks continue to price loans conservatively because of credit risk, funding costs and concerns about asset quality.
Lower borrowing costs would be particularly important for manufacturers, small and medium-sized enterprises and companies seeking to invest in equipment, technology and expansion.
EY also supported the government’s renewed emphasis on rebuilding the Sinking Fund ahead of major debt repayments.
Approximately GH¢111.00 billion in obligations arising from the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme are expected to mature between 2027 and 2028.
Building adequate reserves before those repayments fall due could reduce refinancing pressure and limit the risk that the government will need to borrow heavily from the domestic market at short notice.
A well-funded repayment mechanism could also strengthen confidence among investors who remain sensitive to Ghana’s debt-management record following the restructuring.
However, accumulating funds for future repayments will require strong cash management and continued fiscal discipline.
The government must balance debt-service preparations with immediate development needs, including infrastructure, healthcare, education and social protection.
For investors and businesses, EY said Ghana’s improving macroeconomic environment was creating new opportunities, but confidence would depend on consistent implementation.
Policy reversals, weak revenue performance or delays in structural reforms could undermine the progress already achieved.
EY’s assessment is therefore supportive but conditional.
Ghana has restored a measure of fiscal and macroeconomic credibility, reduced immediate crisis risks and created a stronger platform for growth.
The next test is whether the government can convert that stability into productive investment, affordable credit, stronger private-sector expansion and sustained job creation.
