- GFIM Opens Week Strongly, But Demand Remains Concentrated in Government Securities
Trading activity on the Ghana Fixed Income Market rose sharply on Monday, with total turnover reaching GH¢1.56bn as investors directed more than two-thirds of traded volume into Treasury bills.
The October 5 session recorded 7,337 transactions, compared with 119 deals and GH¢567.53m in turnover during the preceding session on October 2.
This represented a GH¢991.32m increase in traded volume, equivalent to a 174.7% session-on-session expansion.
The surge was driven primarily by Treasury bills, where turnover climbed almost fivefold from GH¢222.13m to GH¢1.05bn.
Despite the headline improvement, the composition of trading showed that investors remained heavily concentrated in government instruments, particularly short-dated securities that provide liquidity and limited duration risk.
Treasury-bill transactions accounted for approximately 67.6% of total market turnover and 7,280 of the 7,337 transactions recorded during the session.
The most actively traded security was the government bill maturing on December 7, 2026. It recorded GH¢291.06mn in turnover across 5,290 transactions at a reported yield of about 5.40% and a closing price of GH¢99.07.
That single security represented 27.6% of Treasury-bill activity and nearly 18.7% of the entire fixed-income market.
The large number of transactions relative to the value traded indicates that activity was broken into numerous comparatively small parcels. It suggests broad transactional demand rather than one isolated institutional block.
A bill maturing on August 2, 2027, followed with GH¢142.75m in turnover at a yield of approximately 8.96%.
Another GH¢135.89m was traded in the bill maturing on December 28, 2026, while the July 26, 2027 security attracted GH¢105.59m.
Demand for the July and August 2027 maturities also pushed their yields moderately lower compared with the previous session. The July 26 bill traded at about 8.88%, down from 8.99%, while the August 2 bill eased to approximately 8.96% from 9.07%.
The decline of about 10 basis points across both instruments indicates firmer investor demand and modest price appreciation at that section of the curve.
The preference for Treasury bills is consistent with an investor base still placing a premium on liquidity. Although Ghana’s disinflation and the Bank of Ghana’s 14% policy rate have strengthened the case for duration, investors appear unwilling to abandon the flexibility offered by short-dated government paper.
Trading in Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds increased to GH¢347.63m from GH¢209.98m, accounting for 22.3% of total turnover.
The February 2032 bond was the most actively traded DDEP security, recording GH¢100m across three transactions. Its reported closing yield rose seven basis points from an opening level of 14.20% to 14.27%, while its closing price stood at GH¢81.03.
The February 2031 bond recorded GH¢90m in a single transaction, with its yield increasing by 11 basis points to 14.51%.
These yield increases point to some price pressure on the longer section of the restructured curve, despite the overall rise in DDEP turnover.
Demand appeared firmer in selected shorter and intermediate maturities. The August 2028 bond recorded GH¢38.59m in turnover as its yield fell sharply from 12.50% to 11.57%.
The February 2029 instrument traded GH¢47.48m, with its yield easing nine basis points to 13.72%, while the February 2030 bond’s yield declined 18 basis points to 14.05%.
The yield movements were therefore not uniform. Investors appeared willing to bid more aggressively for selected maturities while demanding higher returns on parts of the longer curve.
This differentiation is a sign that the DDEP market is gradually moving beyond treating all restructured securities as a single risk category. Investors are increasingly discriminating according to maturity, coupon, liquidity and expected cash-flow timing.
Sell/buy-back transactions in government bonds rose 18.4% to GH¢156.63m from GH¢132.26m.
The segment was dominated by two large transactions involving long-dated DDEP bonds.
A GH¢100mn transaction was recorded in the February 2036 bond at a yield of 14.46%, while the February 2037 security attracted GH¢50m at 14.61%.
Together, the two securities accounted for nearly 96% of sell/buy-back volume.
The concentration suggests that dealers and institutions were using long-dated restructured bonds to obtain short-term liquidity rather than expressing broad outright demand for those instruments.
Repo activity is important because it allows holders to unlock cash without permanently disposing of their securities. Its growth can support secondary-market liquidity, although concentration in a handful of bonds means the wider collateral market remains relatively narrow.
No corporate-bond trades were recorded during the session, compared with GH¢2.97m on October 2.
The absence of corporate activity stands in sharp contrast to the expansion in government-security turnover.
It illustrates the structural imbalance within Ghana’s fixed-income market: government paper provides most of the available liquidity, while corporate securities trade sporadically and in relatively small volumes.
New government bonds generated only GH¢594,059 in turnover. The entire amount was traded in the September 2030 bond, whose yield rose 17 basis points to 11.97%.
A single GH¢190,000 transaction was recorded in an old government bond maturing in January 2027 at a reported yield of 23%.
The immediate outlook points to continued strength in Treasury-bill activity as investors balance falling inflation against currency, fiscal and reinvestment risks.
Demand could remain strongest in maturities offering a compromise between liquidity and yield, particularly bills extending into the second half of 2027.
DDEP securities may continue attracting institutional interest, but the mixed yield movements show that investors are becoming increasingly selective. Falling yields on some shorter maturities suggest confidence in near-term cash flows, while increases at the longer end indicate that duration and liquidity premiums remain significant.
Monday’s GH¢1.56bn turnover represents a strong start to the trading week. Yet the underlying message is more cautious than the headline number suggests.
Liquidity has returned in force, but it remains overwhelmingly concentrated in government securities. Until corporate bonds attract consistent secondary-market demand and trading broadens across the sovereign curve, Ghana’s fixed-income recovery will remain deep in selected pockets rather than broad across the market.
