- GFIM Turnover Holds at GH¢2.23bn as Large DDEP Trades Replace Treasury-Bill Activity
Trading on the Ghana Fixed Income Market remained broadly stable at GH¢2.23bn on October 9, but the headline figure concealed a significant change in the character of the market.
Although total traded value declined by only 0.28% from the GH¢2.24bn recorded on October 8, the number of transactions collapsed by 67.1%, falling from 4,194 to 1,379.
The combination of stable turnover and sharply fewer transactions shows that activity shifted away from numerous small Treasury-bill trades towards larger institutional transactions in government bonds issued under Ghana’s Domestic Debt Exchange Programme.
Average value per transaction consequently rose from about GH¢533,700 on October 8 to approximately GH¢1.62m on October 9, an increase of more than 200%.
This was therefore not a quiet session in value terms. It was a more concentrated market in which a smaller number of sizeable trades accounted for nearly the same turnover.
DDEP securities strengthened their position as the market’s main source of liquidity.
Turnover in the segment increased by GH¢199.26m, or 13.8%, from GH¢1.44bn to GH¢1.64bn. Its share of total GFIM turnover rose from 64.5% on October 8 to 73.6% on October 9.
Remarkably, the number of DDEP bond transactions remained unchanged at 50. The increase in turnover was therefore driven entirely by larger average transaction sizes. The average DDEP trade rose from approximately GH¢28.88m to GH¢32.87m.
The pattern suggests that institutional investors were repositioning sizeable portfolios rather than broad retail or small-ticket participation returning to the market.
The concentration within the DDEP segment nevertheless became less dependent on a single instrument.
On October 8, the February 2029 GC-3 bond accounted for GH¢892.72m, representing almost 62% of total DDEP turnover. Its official closing yield stood at 13.93%.
By October 9, activity had shifted further along the maturity curve. The February 2032 GC-6 bond led trading with GH¢625.93m across only four transactions. Its closing yield eased by 18 basis points to 14.37% from 14.55%, while its closing price rose from 80.16 to 80.73.
The February 2030 GC-4 bond attracted another GH¢501.61m through 10 transactions. Its yield fell by nine basis points to 14.37%, accompanied by a price increase to 85.53.
Together, the 2030 and 2032 securities generated GH¢1.13bn, or almost 69% of the day’s DDEP turnover. This points to strong activity in the intermediate-to-long section of the restructured curve.
The decline in yields on those heavily traded bonds can be read as evidence of firmer demand. However, the conclusion should be treated cautiously: with a limited number of transactions, a few large portfolio reallocations can materially influence closing prices and yields.
The shorter end of the DDEP curve presented a more mixed picture. The February 2027 GC-1 bond recorded GH¢350.46m in turnover, but its closing yield increased by 40 basis points to 11.02%. The August 2028 A-2 bond’s yield also climbed from 11.57% to 12.20%.
Investors therefore appeared more willing to secure selected 2030 and 2032 bonds than to bid indiscriminately across the entire DDEP universe.
Treasury-bill turnover fell by GH¢213.65m, or 28.3%, to GH¢541.63m from GH¢755.28m in the previous session.
Its share of the market declined from 33.7% to 24.3%, while the number of bill transactions dropped from 4,118 to 1,287—a decline of almost 69%.
The fall in transaction count explains most of the overall reduction in market activity. Treasury bills accounted for more than 98% of all GFIM transactions on October 8 and approximately 93% on October 9.
The centre of bill trading also moved further along the maturity schedule.
On October 8, the December 28, 2026 bill was the most actively traded instrument, recording GH¢231.73m at a closing yield of approximately 4.93%. A day later, the August 2, 2027 bill led the segment with GH¢175.88m, closing at a yield of about 8.92%.
The July 26, 2027 bill contributed another GH¢143.79m, while the July 19 instrument recorded GH¢86.94m.
This concentration in July and August 2027 maturities indicates that part of the market was extending duration beyond the shortest bills, potentially to lock in higher nominal returns. It does not necessarily represent a wholesale retreat from short-term government paper, but it shows that immediate liquidity preference was less dominant during the session.
Trading in the government’s newer bonds rose sharply from GH¢1.18m to GH¢34.68m.
Although this represented an increase of almost 2,850%, the segment still accounted for only 1.6% of total market turnover.
The March 2033 bond dominated the category, generating GH¢31.39m across 16 transactions. It closed at a yield of 12.52%, marginally above the previous session’s 12.51%.
The September 2030 bond recorded GH¢3.29m, with its yield rising by 10 basis points to 11.65%.
The greater participation in the 2033 instrument is notable because it provides another reference point for Ghana’s post-restructuring domestic yield curve. Still, the volumes remain modest relative to DDEP securities, which continue to define secondary-market liquidity.
Corporate bond turnover declined by 94% to GH¢1.33m from GH¢22.03m.
Both sessions were dominated by COCOBOD’s August 2028 bond. Turnover in that security dropped from GH¢21.53m to GH¢1.28m, even as its closing price increased from 102.18 to 102.82.
The sharp reduction illustrates the narrowness of Ghana’s corporate fixed-income market. A single large trade can lift the segment’s daily turnover above GH¢20m, while its absence can leave activity close to negligible.
Sell-buy-back transactions also fell by 27.3% to GH¢11.17m, although the number of trades increased slightly from 18 to 19. Old government bonds recorded no transactions, compared with GH¢391,657 on October 8.
The October 9 market was defined by three connected developments: fewer transactions, larger trade sizes and stronger concentration in DDEP bonds.
The GH¢2.23bn headline indicates that market capacity remained intact. However, the 67% decline in trade count shows that liquidity was unevenly distributed. A market supported by a handful of large institutional trades can produce strong daily turnover without necessarily offering consistently deep liquidity across instruments.
The tilt towards the 2030 and 2032 DDEP maturities may be an early indication that some investors are becoming more comfortable taking duration risk where prices remain substantially below par and yields are close to 14.4%.
Yet the mixed yield changes across the curve suggest selectivity, not a broad-based rally.
In the near term, investors will be watching whether turnover in longer-dated DDEP bonds persists across several sessions. Sustained demand accompanied by declining yields and a broader range of buyers would provide stronger evidence of improving secondary-market confidence.
If activity instead returns quickly to Treasury bills, October 9 may prove to have been primarily a session of large portfolio transfers rather than a lasting change in investment strategy.
What is clear is that the near-unchanged turnover figure alone does not capture the session. Beneath it, Ghana’s fixed-income market became less transaction-intensive, more institutional and considerably more dependent on restructured government bonds.
