IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on First Review of Chad’s ECF Programme
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has reached a staff-level agreement with the Chadian authorities on the completion of the first review of Chad’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, following discussions held in N’Djamena from November 13 to 21.
The mission, led by Julien Reynaud, IMF Mission Chief for Chad, conducted the review under the ECF arrangement approved by the IMF Executive Board on July 25, 2025, amounting to SDR 455.65 million—equivalent to about US$655 million or 325 per cent of Chad’s quota.
In a statement issued at the conclusion of the mission, Mr Reynaud said the staff-level agreement remains subject to IMF Management approval, as well as the securing of regional policy assurances and confirmation of financing assurances before it can be presented to the IMF Executive Board.
According to the IMF, Chad’s economic activity remains robust, driven largely by stronger-than-expected performance in the non-oil sector. Real GDP growth reached 5.0 per cent in 2024, exceeding earlier projections, while high-frequency indicators suggest continued expansion in 2025.
Inflation has eased sharply, turning negative in early 2025 and falling to -4.3 per cent in November, largely reflecting lower food prices following record highs last year and improved agricultural output.
The Fund noted that the medium-term outlook remains broadly positive, contingent on sustained reform implementation, execution of the National Development Plan (NDP), and favourable external conditions. As a result, the growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 5.1 per cent from an earlier estimate of 3.6 per cent, with inflation expected to return gradually to positive territory.
Programme performance at end-June 2025 was assessed as broadly satisfactory, with all quantitative performance criteria met, including those related to non-oil revenues, the wage bill, and the non-oil primary balance. Two of the three indicative targets were also achieved, with domestic payment arrears declining, including a CFAF 42 billion reduction in arrears owed to contractors. The authorities additionally cleared CFAF 51 billion in external arrears.
However, the indicative target on net domestic financing was missed, due mainly to delays in restructuring state-owned banks.
Fiscal revenues through the first three quarters of 2025 were broadly in line with programme projections. While oil revenues underperformed due to a significant depreciation of the US dollar, non-oil revenues exceeded expectations, supported by stronger economic activity and tax measures implemented under the ECF programme.
On the expenditure side, spending on transfers, subsidies and investment fell below projections, partly reflecting reforms to strengthen expenditure controls and the rollout of the SIGFIP public financial management system.
The IMF said the 2026 budget approved by Chad’s National Assembly is consistent with programme objectives, with authorities aiming to create fiscal space for capital and social spending by boosting non-oil revenues and containing the wage bill.
While acknowledging delays in the implementation of some structural reforms, the Fund said the authorities remain committed to their reform agenda, including fixing the VAT credit system, improving wage bill management, strengthening budget execution and settlement of accounts, and publishing the results of an oil revenue audit.
Looking ahead, the authorities have committed to advancing banking sector restructuring, strengthening public financial management, governance and fiscal transparency, and expanding social safety nets. Progress on the census and identification of vulnerable households scheduled for 2026 was identified as critical to improving living conditions.
The IMF also highlighted growing humanitarian pressures, noting that about 160,000 additional Sudanese refugees have arrived since January 2025, bringing the total number of refugees and asylum seekers in Chad to 1.5 million. Protecting social and development spending, particularly targeted support for vulnerable households, remains a key priority under the programme.
During the mission, the IMF team held meetings with President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, Prime Minister Allamaye Halina, Finance Minister Tahir Hamid Nguilin, senior government officials, representatives of oversight institutions, and the private sector.
The Fund expressed appreciation to the Chadian authorities for their cooperation and continued constructive engagement.
