- IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With Guinea-Bissau on Eleventh ECF Review
The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement with Guinea-Bissau on economic and financial policies that could support completion of the eleventh review of the country’s Extended Credit Facility arrangement. The agreement, reached after IMF staff discussions in Bissau from April 21 to 29, 2026, remains subject to agreed prior actions, IMF management approval and Executive Board consideration.
If approved by the IMF Executive Board, Guinea-Bissau will gain access to SDR 1.18 million, equivalent to about US$1.6 million, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 38.58 million, or about US$52.8 million.
The ECF arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 30, 2023, for a total amount of SDR 28.4 million, equivalent to about US$37.3 million. The Fund later granted an augmentation of access to 140 per cent of quota, or SDR 39.76 million, in November 2023.
Niko Hobdari, IMF mission chief for Guinea-Bissau, said the staff-level agreement reflected strong programme performance and the authorities’ continued commitment to prudent macroeconomic management, fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
“I am pleased to announce that we have reached a staff-level agreement with the Guinea-Bissau authorities on economic and financial policies that could support the approval of the Eleventh Review of the ECF program,” Mr Hobdari said.
He said all end-March 2026 programme targets were met, including quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, structural benchmarks and continuous performance criteria.
“All end-March 2026 program targets were met,” he said, adding that this reflected continued commitment to the ECF-supported reform agenda.
Guinea-Bissau’s economy remained resilient in 2025, with growth estimated at 5.8 per cent, supported by strong agricultural production, particularly cashew exports, and solid private investment.
However, the IMF expects growth to moderate in 2026 due to a more difficult external environment, including higher global fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East and possible disruptions to the cashew marketing campaign from production and logistical constraints. The Fund said these risks require sustained fiscal discipline, stronger revenue mobilisation and cautious programming of cashew-related revenues to protect macroeconomic stability and priority spending.
The authorities, according to the IMF, remain committed to achieving the 2026 domestic primary surplus target through strengthened revenue mobilisation and strict expenditure prioritisation. They are also implementing prior actions aimed at reinforcing tax administration, tightening expenditure controls, strengthening debt management and preserving investor confidence.
Mr Hobdari said these measures, together with ongoing structural reforms, would be critical to maintaining stability and supporting inclusive growth.
The outlook, however, remains exposed to significant downside risks. These include adverse weather conditions, weaker terms of trade and tighter financing conditions. With fiscal space limited, the IMF said curtailing non-priority spending until cashew-related revenues materialise would be important to easing financing pressures. The Fund also urged continued efforts to diversify the economy beyond cashew, including into fisheries and extractive sectors such as oil, phosphate and bauxite.
This staff-level agreement offers another signal of policy continuity under the IMF programme. But the small size of the prospective disbursement also highlights the country’s broader development challenge: macroeconomic discipline is necessary, but deeper structural transformation will depend on diversification, stronger institutions and more resilient revenue sources.
The next step is Executive Board approval. If completed, the disbursement will provide additional support to Guinea-Bissau’s reform programme while reinforcing the Fund’s assessment that the authorities remain broadly on track.
