- Moody’s Talks Raise Hopes of Another Ghana Ratings Upgrade as Recovery Deepens
Ghana is positioning itself for another sovereign credit rating upgrade in the second half of 2026 as policymakers seek to convert improvements in fiscal discipline, inflation, foreign-exchange reserves and debt sustainability into stronger investor confidence and lower borrowing risks.
Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama, said discussions with international rating agencies were continuing, with authorities increasingly optimistic that the improvement in Ghana’s macroeconomic fundamentals could trigger further positive rating action.
“Only yesterday, I had a meeting with another ratings agency, Moody’s, and we look forward to some good reviews in the coming months,” Dr Asiama said at the Fidelity Bank Debt Capital Market Conference in Accra.
The optimism marks a significant change in Ghana’s sovereign risk story after a period in which the economy was grappling with sovereign default, high inflation, sharp currency depreciation and the loss of access to international capital markets.
Ghana’s rating trajectory has already improved materially.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s sovereign rating to B-/B from CCC+/C in November 2025, while Fitch Ratings raised Ghana from B- to B in May 2026. Fitch also assigned a positive outlook, leaving scope for further improvement if fiscal and external gains are sustained.
“These developments have been recognised by international rating agencies, with S&P upgrading Ghana’s sovereign rating to B-/B in November 2025 from CCC+/C, and Fitch Ratings upgrading the country from B- to B in May 2026,” Dr Asiama said.
Moody’s maintained Ghana’s rating at Caa1 in April but changed the outlook to positive from stable, signalling that a further upgrade could follow if the country continues improving its fiscal and external position.
Sovereign credit ratings influence the risk premium investors attach to government debt and can affect the pricing of financing across the wider economy. A sustained improvement in Ghana’s credit profile could gradually lower sovereign borrowing costs and improve access to capital for domestic banks, corporations and other issuers whose funding conditions are often linked to the sovereign.
Dr Asiama placed fiscal consolidation at the centre of the recovery, describing it as being “underpinned by enhanced domestic revenue mobilisation, prudent expenditure management, and the restoration of debt sustainability”.
Debt restructuring and stronger fiscal performance have also begun to alter Ghana’s risk profile.
An International Monetary Fund assessment published in July indicated that Ghana’s risk of debt distress had improved from high to moderate, while recognising progress in completing major components of the country’s debt restructuring programme.
Programme-defined gross international reserves reached about US$10.90 billion in June 2026, equivalent to approximately 4.20 months of prospective imports, providing the economy with a stronger buffer against external shocks.
The improvement in reserves has also supported greater stability in the foreign-exchange market.
Dr Asiama said the central bank’s revised foreign-exchange arrangements were strengthening transparency and predictability.
“Our new FX Operations Framework has enhanced the transparency and predictability of our FX operations,” he said.
The Bank is simultaneously rebuilding external buffers through gold accumulation under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy in coordination with the Ministry of Finance.
Dr Asiama expects growth of about 6.00% during the second half of 2026, which would strengthen the argument that Ghana’s post-crisis adjustment is moving beyond stabilisation towards a broader recovery in economic activity.
The durability of that recovery, however, will depend heavily on price stability.
The Governor expects headline inflation to remain broadly within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8.00% ± 2.00 percentage points, provided the economy does not encounter major external shocks.
“It is important to also indicate that quarterly adjustments in utility tariffs and re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are potential downside risks that could adversely impact the inflation profile going forward,” Dr Asiama said.
Those risks are relevant to rating agencies because Ghana remains exposed to movements in commodity prices, energy costs and the exchange rate.
A sustained sovereign rating recovery will therefore require policymakers to demonstrate that the improvement in the fiscal, inflation and reserve positions can withstand external shocks rather than merely reflect favourable conditions.
The next stage of Ghana’s financial recovery may increasingly be judged by whether macroeconomic stability translates into deeper domestic capital markets.
Dr Asiama said the central bank would continue institutional reforms, including measures aimed at safeguarding the independence of the Bank of Ghana and strengthening financial-market development.
Authorities are also developing a regulatory framework for Virtual Asset Service Providers following the passage of the relevant legislation, while broader reforms are expected to encourage banks to list on the equity market and mobilise longer-term capital.
The Governor is additionally pushing for greater participation by corporate and quasi-government issuers in Ghana’s capital markets.
“For instance, the Ghana Cocoa Board has indicated its intention to finance operations for the 2026/2027 crop season through commercial paper issuances, targeting US$1 billion in three phases,” Dr Asiama said.
Such a development could be significant for the structure of Ghana’s financial system.
A deeper domestic debt capital market would reduce excessive dependence on government borrowing and traditional bank credit while giving pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors access to a wider range of investible assets.
It would also provide an important test of whether the improvement in sovereign conditions can begin to lower financing constraints for other parts of the economy.
For policymakers, however, the challenge is increasingly one of credibility rather than simply recovery.
The improvement in Ghana’s ratings profile shows that international agencies are beginning to recognise the progress made since the debt crisis.
Moving further up the ratings ladder will require more than maintaining current conditions.
It will demand sustained primary surpluses, disciplined expenditure, continued revenue mobilisation, stable inflation, stronger reserves and restraint against another rapid accumulation of public debt.
A further upgrade in the second half of 2026 would therefore represent more than another positive assessment from an international ratings agency.
It would provide evidence that Ghana is steadily rebuilding the sovereign credibility lost during the debt crisis and moving closer to a point where international capital markets could become accessible again on terms consistent with the fiscal repair now under way.
The real test will be whether Ghana can preserve that credibility when external conditions become less favourable.
For rating agencies, investors and domestic markets alike, the next upgrade will depend not simply on how far the economy has recovered, but on whether the reforms underpinning that recovery can prove durable.
