- PIAC warns Ghana’s petroleum sector is weakening as output, revenues and legal compliance deteriorate in 2025
The Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) has painted a troubling picture of Ghana’s petroleum sector in 2025, warning that falling crude production, shrinking revenues, weak fund allocation practices, and repeated breaches of the Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA) are undermining the long-term value of the country’s oil and gas resources.
At the centre of PIAC’s assessment is a steep production decline. Ghana’s crude oil output fell to 37.3 million barrels in 2025 from 48.24 million barrels in 2024, continuing a sustained downward trend that has seen average annual decline rates reach about 9 percent since 2019. Daily output has now dropped below 100,000 barrels, with estimates placing it closer to 80,000 barrels per day. Jubilee remained the largest producing field at 22.3 million barrels, while the TEN field contributed the least and continues to weaken.
PIAC attributes part of the TEN field’s poor performance to its complex geology, which requires substantial gas reinjection to sustain oil extraction. This has made fresh investment less attractive to operators and deepened concerns about the future commercial viability of some of Ghana’s mature producing assets.
Even so, the committee identified some positive operational developments in the gas segment. Gas supply to power plants improved in 2025, reducing dependence on more expensive liquid fuels. Gas flaring also declined further, reflecting stronger collaboration between regulators and operators. In the TEN field, however, as much as 81 percent of raw gas produced was reinjected to support oil recovery, underlining the technical and economic constraints facing the basin. Gas exports for power generation also rose, increasing from 41 percent in 2024 to 45 percent in 2025.
The production slump fed directly into lower petroleum earnings. Total petroleum revenue fell to $770 million in 2025, representing a 43.27 percent drop from the $1.3 billion recorded in 2024. PIAC said the decline was driven mainly by reduced oil output and softer global crude prices. Although carried and participating interest has historically been the largest source of petroleum revenue, the committee noted that government receipts increased in relative importance in 2025.
In terms of allocation, the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA) received 56 percent of petroleum revenues, GNPC took 14 percent, the Ghana Stabilisation Fund (GSF) 21 percent, and the Ghana Heritage Fund (GHF) 9 percent. Over the longer period from 2011 to 2025, ABFA has received about $4.8 billion, GNPC $3.2 billion, GSF $2.7 billion in inflows, and GHF $1.1 billion, with the latter now holding a closing balance of $1.2 billion.
But PIAC’s more serious concern lies not only in the falling revenues, but in how those revenues are being handled.
One of the committee’s sharpest criticisms relates to a $434 million transfer from ABFA to the Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund (GIIF) for the Accra – Kumasi Expressway Project. PIAC argues that this is non-compliant with the law because GIIF no longer falls within the PRMA framework. Although the committee supports the government’s “Big Push” approach of concentrating petroleum revenues into fewer, larger infrastructure projects, it insists that such spending must come with full project transparency, including scope, cost, contractor details and payment records.
PIAC contrasted this with what it described as a more strategic use of petroleum resources in the past, citing the Accra International Airport investment made between 2017 and 2020, which reportedly generated $72.9 million in returns, equivalent to about 60 percent of the initial investment.
The committee also flagged what it sees as direct violations of statutory allocation requirements. It said the District Assemblies Common Fund received only $1.37 million from ABFA in 2025, or just 0.43 percent, far below the 5 percent minimum required by law. PIAC further objected to the continued capping of the Ghana Stabilisation Fund at $100 million, despite a legislated cap of $584 million. According to the committee, finance ministers from 2021 to 2025 have consistently breached this provision, weakening Ghana’s buffer against future oil price volatility and external shocks.
Accountability concerns extend beyond statutory allocations. PIAC said GNPC’s receipts fell by 61.5 percent in 2025, with no equity financing receipts from the TEN field despite a lifting having taken place, because the proceeds were only paid in 2026.
Even more striking is PIAC’s claim that Explico has failed to account for $561 million owed to the state. The committee said the company has relied on shifting descriptions of its identity, at times presenting itself as a subsidiary and at other times as a government entity, to evade proper settlement. PIAC’s view is that Explico is wholly state-owned, meaning both its liabilities and revenues must ultimately be treated as government obligations.
The committee also raised fresh red flags over Ghana Gas. It pointed to persistent and unexplained price differentials in gas sales, even after the suspension of the Gas Sector Deregulation and Incentivisation Programme. PIAC said this lack of pricing clarity remains unresolved. At the same time, Ghana Gas is carrying an outstanding debt burden of $620 million, largely from entities such as the Volta River Authority, a situation PIAC says is weakening the company’s financial health and creating risks across the wider energy value chain.
To address these challenges, PIAC is calling for urgent structural and policy action. It wants a comprehensive investment framework for both existing and newly discovered fields, especially TEN, to improve efficiency and restore investor interest. It is also urging the government to review fiscal and regulatory terms to make Ghana’s upstream sector more attractive in a period when global capital is becoming more selective amid the energy transition.
The committee further recommends new investment in geological data acquisition for frontier basins such as Keta and Accra, arguing that better data is essential if Ghana is to expand exploration and unlock new production opportunities.
On revenue management, PIAC wants Explorco compelled to account for the $561 million owed to the state, the finance minister directed to comply fully with the 5 percent ABFA transfer to the DACF, and the Ghana Stabilisation Fund cap restored to its legal threshold of $584 million. It also argues that a long-term national development plan should anchor ABFA-financed projects to protect continuity across political cycles.
For Ghana Gas, PIAC is demanding a uniform policy for gas pricing and a time-bound debt repayment programme to deal with the company’s $620 million exposure.
Overall, PIAC’s 2025 assessment suggests Ghana is no longer dealing with a routine cyclical dip in petroleum performance but with a broader governance and sustainability problem. Production is falling, revenues are shrinking, and the legal safeguards designed to ensure prudent use of petroleum wealth are increasingly being bent or ignored. The warning from the committee is clear: without urgent reform, Ghana risks exhausting the value of its petroleum resources while leaving behind little by way of fiscal stability, strategic investment or intergenerational benefit.
