- PwC Flags Fuel, Freight and Borrowing Costs as Key Risks for Ghanaian Businesses
Ghanaian businesses should monitor inflation, Treasury bill yields, commercial lending rates and government capital expenditure more closely as geopolitical tensions and global monetary conditions threaten to reshape the domestic outlook during the second half of 2026, according to PwC Ghana.
The professional services firm said improving macroeconomic indicators should not lead boards and chief executives to underestimate the risks posed by developments in global energy markets, supply chains and international interest rates.
PwC identified monthly inflation data, particularly food inflation and imported price pressures, as one of the most important indicators for corporate decision-making.
It also highlighted Treasury bill rates, bank lending costs and the pace of public capital expenditure as variables likely to influence borrowing, investment, consumer demand and business confidence.
The warning comes amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East, which could disrupt energy supplies and increase global commodity prices.
PwC said prolonged instability could raise fuel prices, freight charges, insurance costs and food production expenses, placing additional pressure on Ghana’s import bill and domestic transport costs.
Higher international petroleum prices would also increase production and distribution expenses across sectors that depend heavily on diesel and other imported fuels.
For companies, the effect could appear through rising input costs, weaker margins and greater pressure to increase prices.
The firm also warned that persistent global inflation could encourage major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, to maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer.
That outcome could delay Ghana’s return to affordable international capital markets and keep the cost of trade finance and external borrowing elevated.
A prolonged period of high global interest rates would affect not only government borrowing but also private companies seeking foreign currency financing for imports, machinery and expansion.
PwC nevertheless identified opportunities capable of supporting Ghana’s recovery.
Elevated gold prices continue to strengthen export earnings and foreign-exchange reserves, providing some protection against external shocks.
The restructuring of global supply chains could also create opportunities for Ghana to attract manufacturing investment from companies seeking new production locations.
The African Continental Free Trade Area and Ghana’s political stability were cited as additional structural advantages that could support regional trade and long-term capital inflows.
PwC’s sectoral assessment was broadly positive but cautious.
Manufacturers could benefit from easing domestic interest rates, a relatively stable cedi and improving macroeconomic confidence.
However, rising costs for imported raw materials and delays in public infrastructure spending could constrain production and weaken expansion plans.
In agriculture, the firm acknowledged government support through programmes such as Feed Ghana and investments in agricultural roads.
It also noted criticism surrounding the design and implementation of some interventions, including the Poultry Farm-to-Table Project.
The effectiveness of agricultural policy will depend on whether programmes improve productivity, reduce import dependence and connect farmers more efficiently to markets.
PwC maintained a positive outlook for cocoa and mining because of favourable international commodity prices.
It nevertheless advised companies in both sectors to protect themselves against price volatility and possible policy changes.
The energy sector offers new investment opportunities as reforms progress, but unresolved legacy debts and the financial condition of state-owned enterprises remain major concerns.
These liabilities could continue to affect investor confidence and create pressure on public finances.
Banks and insurance companies are expected to benefit from improved macroeconomic stability and healthier loan portfolios.
However, narrowing interest margins and the repricing of loans could test profitability and require careful balance-sheet management.
Construction and real estate companies may gain from lower borrowing costs, but delayed public capital expenditure and rising prices for imported building materials remain significant risks.
The pace at which the government executes infrastructure projects will therefore have important consequences for contractors, suppliers and employment in the sector.
Retailers and import-dependent businesses were advised to strengthen foreign-exchange risk management despite expectations of a gradual recovery in consumer demand.
Technology and telecommunications companies were identified as among the strongest medium-term beneficiaries of Ghana’s digitalisation and the continued expansion of the formal economy.
PwC’s message to corporate leaders is that Ghana’s recovery remains broadly intact but increasingly exposed to global developments.
The second half of 2026 will require boards to assess not only domestic growth and inflation trends but also oil prices, freight costs, global interest rates and fiscal execution.
For businesses, the central challenge will be to protect margins and preserve investment capacity while remaining prepared for a possible return of inflationary and financing pressures.
