Strait of Hormuz Crisis May Impact Ghana’s Food System Mainly Through Indirect Channels, Says Prof. Asuming
Economist at the University of Ghana, Prof. Patrick Asuming, has stated that a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz may affect Ghana’s food system largely through indirect economic channels rather than through direct food supply disruptions.
Speaking during the NorvanReports and Economic Governance Platform (EGP) X Space discussion themed “State of Ghana’s Food: The Impact of a Strait of Hormuz Closure” on Sunday, March 15, 2026, Prof. Asuming said the implications for Ghana should be examined through both direct and indirect effects.
According to him, an assessment of Ghana’s food import structure suggests that many of the country’s major food imports do not originate from countries that rely heavily on the Hormuz shipping corridor.
He explained that Ghana’s key imported food categories include grains, meat products, fats and vegetable oils, and sugar-related products.
“In terms of the items we import and who we import them from, the countries that use the Strait of Hormuz more directly are probably not in that list,” he noted.
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service, he said, indicate that Ghana’s major grain imports largely originate from countries such as Canada, Turkey, Russia and other European countries, while cereals are also sourced from Vietnam and Brazil.
Fish products, he added, are mainly imported from China, France and other African countries, while Brazil remains a significant supplier of certain animal products.
From that perspective, Prof. Asuming noted that the direct supply impact of a disruption in the Strait may appear limited.
However, he cautioned that the broader economic effects could be significant due to disruptions in global supply chains and rising logistics costs.
“But when you begin to look at the indirect impact, that’s when you see a whole variety of areas where Ghana will be affected, including shipping, freight costs and potential effects on the currency,” he said.
Planting season risks
Prof. Asuming further indicated that the timing of the disruption could create additional risks for Ghana’s agricultural sector as the country enters its planting season.
He noted that while imported processed foods typically arrive throughout the year, agricultural inputs such as fertilisers and other production inputs are particularly important during planting periods.
According to him, even if such inputs do not pass directly through the Strait, disruptions in global supply chains could still cascade across markets and affect availability and pricing.
“From a macro point of view, the impact only gets worse with time. The longer it goes, the bigger the potential impact for us,” he explained.
Import dependency a structural concern
Prof. Asuming also emphasised that Ghana’s high dependence on imported food remains a structural vulnerability that amplifies the impact of external shocks.
He argued that despite the country’s strong agricultural potential across the food value chain—from raw agricultural production to semi-processed and processed foods—growing reliance on imports has weakened the domestic productive base.
“The import dependency, especially on the food side, is a much bigger problem,” he stated.
According to him, if Ghana were less exposed to food imports, external shocks affecting exchange rates, freight costs and global commodity prices would have a more limited impact on domestic food prices.
He further noted that Ghana remains one of the most open economies globally, a situation he said has gradually allowed imports to erode local production capacity.
Fuel price increases could transmit shocks quickly
Prof. Asuming warned that the earliest impact of the disruption could emerge through rising fuel prices.
“I understand that we should be expecting at least a 10 percent increase or probably more at the pumps,” he said.
Once fuel prices begin to rise, he noted, the impact would quickly spread across transportation, logistics and other sectors of the economy, given the central role energy plays in economic activity.
“Energy and fuel affect almost everything we do in the economy,” he said.
While higher global gold prices could help support the Bank of Ghana’s ability to stabilise the cedi, he cautioned that the broader challenge extends beyond currency stability.
According to him, multiple rounds of fuel price increases could quickly transmit inflationary pressures across the wider economy.
“This is not just going to be a food thing,” Prof. Asuming noted. “Once the fuel price increases pass through several rounds, the impact spreads through all the other sectors of the economy.”
He added that the longer the disruption in the Strait persists, the more difficult it will become for Ghana to contain its economic effects.
