- Turnover Surges but Concentration Risk Deepens on Ghana Stock Exchange
Trading activity on the Ghana Stock Exchange rose sharply in the week ending October 9, but the increase in liquidity failed to prevent a modest decline in the market’s principal indices as weakness in selected large-cap and financial stocks outweighed strong gains in smaller counters.
Total value traded increased by 35.60 per cent to GH¢141.88m from GH¢104.63m in the preceding week, while the number of shares exchanged rose by 31.81 per cent from 18.83m to 24.81m.
The GSE Composite Index nevertheless declined by 0.13 per cent to 14,053.48 points, trimming its year-to-date return to 60.24 per cent. The GSE Financial Stocks Index recorded a steeper weekly fall of 0.50 per cent to 7,416.25 points, although it remained 59.59 per cent higher since the beginning of the year.
Market capitalisation slipped by GH¢201.35mn, or 0.08 per cent, from GH¢266.70bn to GH¢266.50bn.
The contrasting movement between turnover and the indices reveals the central feature of the week: substantially more shares changed hands, but liquidity was overwhelmingly concentrated in MTN Ghana and did not translate into broad market appreciation.
The information and communications technology sector dominated trading, accounting for GH¢129.92m, equivalent to 91.57 per cent of total market value.
The sector also generated 20.42m shares, or 82.31 per cent of the market’s total volume.
MTN Ghana alone accounted for GH¢129.81m in value and 20.40m shares. This means the telecommunications company generated approximately 91.50 per cent of weekly turnover and more than 82 per cent of shares traded.
Yet MTN Ghana’s share price declined by GH¢0.05, or 0.77 per cent, from GH¢6.50 to GH¢6.45.
The result explains why the sharp rise in turnover did not lift the Composite Index. A high-value transaction increases market liquidity, but the direction of the index is determined by price movements and company weightings rather than turnover alone.
MTN Ghana is one of the exchange’s most influential counters. Consequently, its modest decline carried greater index significance than the double-digit gains recorded by several smaller companies.
The concentration also raises a broader question about the depth of Ghana’s equity market. GH¢141.88mn in weekly turnover appears strong at headline level, but only about GH¢12.07mn was traded outside the ICT sector.
Without MTN Ghana, the week would have looked significantly less liquid.
This does not diminish the importance of the transactions. Large trades can improve price discovery and demonstrate the capacity of the exchange to accommodate institutional orders. However, persistent dependence on one counter makes aggregate turnover a less reliable indicator of broad investor participation.
Trading was also heavily concentrated by day.
The October 7 session generated GH¢82.25mn, accounting for almost 58 per cent of the week’s total value. October 9 contributed a further GH¢31.89mn, or approximately 22.5 per cent.
Together, the two sessions accounted for more than 80 per cent of the week’s turnover.
By comparison, turnover stood at GH¢17.65mn on October 5, GH¢3.23mn on October 6 and GH¢6.86mn on October 8.
The pattern suggests that the weekly increase was driven principally by a small number of large transactions rather than a sustained rise in activity across all five sessions.
For investors, the distinction matters. A market can record a sharp increase in turnover because of one negotiated institutional block without experiencing a corresponding improvement in everyday liquidity for the broader range of listed securities.
The week’s figures therefore point to improving transaction capacity but continuing concentration risk.
Beneath the decline in the headline indices, price performance was more positive than the aggregate figures suggest.
Hords led the market with a 13.89 per cent gain, rising from GH¢0.72 to GH¢0.82. Intravenous Infusions advanced by 12.24 per cent from GH¢0.49 to GH¢0.55, while SIC Insurance gained 10.56 per cent to close at GH¢5.13.
Digicut Production and Advertising rose by 9.80 per cent to GH¢0.56, while TotalEnergies Marketing Ghana increased by 9 per cent to GH¢38.50.
Meridian-Marshalls Holdings gained 8.33 per cent, GOIL appreciated by 6.01 per cent and Enterprise Group advanced by 4.76 per cent.
Kasapreko gained 4.35 per cent, while CalBank and GCB Bank closed 1.39 per cent and 0.45 per cent higher, respectively.
The average price change among the week’s movers was positive at 3.61 per cent. Eleven stocks gained against six decliners, indicating that market breadth among actively moving securities was favourable.
The disconnect between breadth and index direction arose because several of the strongest advances occurred in comparatively smaller or less liquid securities. Their percentage gains were substantial but their effect on the capitalisation-weighted indices was limited.
This is particularly visible on the Ghana Alternative Market, where Hords, Intravenous Infusions, Digicut and Meridian-Marshalls recorded some of the week’s strongest gains.
The advances reinforce the strong year-to-date momentum in selected smaller companies. Intravenous Infusions ended the week with a year-to-date return of 1,000 per cent, Hords stood 720 per cent higher and Digicut had gained 522.22 per cent.
Such returns are striking, but investors must distinguish between percentage appreciation and market depth. In relatively illiquid stocks, a limited number of trades can produce large price movements. That can magnify gains during periods of buying interest and intensify losses when investors attempt to exit.
The Financial Stocks Index underperformed the broader market, falling by 0.50 per cent.
Ecobank Transnational Incorporated declined by 3.75 per cent from GH¢1.60 to GH¢1.54. First Atlantic Bank lost 4.76 per cent to GH¢8, while Standard Chartered Bank Ghana edged down by 0.03 per cent to GH¢69.87.
These declines outweighed gains in Enterprise Group, CalBank and GCB Bank.
The movement suggests that investors remain selective within the financial sector rather than treating banks and insurers as a single recovery trade.
Financial stocks have delivered a year-to-date return of 59.59 per cent, reflecting the market’s broader recovery and improving banking-sector conditions. After such a strong advance, however, investors are increasingly likely to differentiate companies according to earnings quality, capital strength, asset quality, dividend prospects and exposure to changing interest rates.
Declining yields could support private-sector credit growth but may also compress the unusually strong income banks earned from government securities during periods of elevated rates. The next phase of bank performance will therefore depend more heavily on loan growth, fee income, cost management and credit quality.
The financial sector was the second-largest contributor to turnover, but its GH¢4.94m represented only about 3.5 per cent of the total market.
Food and beverage companies generated GH¢2.30m, followed by manufacturing with GH¢1.56m, insurance with GH¢1.05m and distribution with GH¢1.02m.
Agriculture accounted for GH¢807,263.50, while advertising and production generated GH¢209,522.39. Exchange-traded fund transactions amounted to only GH¢41,613.56.
The gap between ICT and every other sector demonstrates the liquidity challenge facing the exchange. Ghana has produced one of Africa’s strongest equity-market returns in 2026, but a sustainable deepening of the market will require more consistent activity across banking, manufacturing, agriculture, consumer goods and other productive sectors.
Without such diversification, the Composite Index and turnover figures will remain highly sensitive to transactions in a small number of companies.
The GSE enters the next trading week with considerable year-to-date gains intact but with signs that the market is becoming more selective.
A 60.24 per cent return on the Composite Index represents a powerful rally. It also means valuations and investor expectations have risen considerably, reducing the margin for earnings disappointments.
The positive breadth recorded during the week suggests that investor interest has not disappeared. Buying has instead rotated towards selected petroleum-marketing, insurance, beverage and Ghana Alternative Market counters.
However, the decline in both principal indices, despite 11 gainers and substantially higher turnover, shows that price direction remains dependent on a narrow group of heavyweight stocks.
MTN Ghana will remain central to near-term market performance. A recovery from GH¢6.45 could quickly support the Composite Index, while further selling would continue to overshadow gains elsewhere.
Financial stocks will also be important. Sustained weakness in ETI, First Atlantic Bank or other major financial counters could keep the Financial Stocks Index under pressure even if smaller banks and insurers advance.
The week therefore delivered two different messages.
On the surface, the market was highly active, with turnover rising by more than one-third and most price-moving stocks closing higher. Beneath that performance, liquidity remained concentrated, the major indices declined and more than nine out of every 10 cedis traded were tied to the ICT sector.
The GSE’s next stage of development will depend not merely on generating occasional high-value transactions, but on turning its exceptional 2026 price performance into deeper and more evenly distributed liquidity across the market.
