UNECA Flags $50 Billion Annual Climate Risk to Africa by 2030, Urges Green Industrialisation Under AfCFTA
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has issued a stark warning on the growing economic threats posed by climate change across the continent, urging swift action to build climate resilience and green industrialisation to safeguard Africa’s economic future.
Contained in its latest economic report themed “Advancing the Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area: Proposing Transformative Strategic Actions”, UNECA reveals that weather, climate, and water hazards in 2022 directly affected over 110 million people on the continent, resulting in economic losses estimated at US$8.5 billion.
According to the report, droughts and floods were the most fatal climate hazards, accounting for 48 per cent and 43 per cent of the 5,000 reported deaths respectively. UNECA, however, cautioned that the actual toll may be significantly higher due to underreporting.
The annual financial burden of climate-related disasters in Africa is currently pegged between US$7 billion and US$15 billion, with projections indicating a potential surge to US$50 billion by 2030 if mitigation and adaptation strategies are not urgently adopted.
“These escalating costs,” the Commission warned, “will further drain resources that could otherwise be directed to economic development and poverty reduction.”
In addition to direct economic losses, UNECA underscored the indirect threats posed by climate-induced instability in global commodity markets—particularly for African economies heavily reliant on the export of agricultural products, minerals, and natural resources. Fluctuating commodity prices, often triggered by extreme weather events, could destabilise government revenues and heighten macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
Agriculture, a critical sector contributing substantially to GDP and employment in many African countries, was highlighted as especially at risk. Since the 1960s, climate shocks have led to a 31 per cent decline in productivity. The report warns that for every 1°C increase in temperature above historical averages, crop productivity could decrease by 5 per cent.
Further, a 2°C rise in temperatures could result in crop yield reductions of up to 20 per cent, UNECA added, noting that irregular rainfall, increased prevalence of pests and diseases, and deteriorating soil quality could exacerbate food insecurity and poverty.
The report stressed the need to urgently invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, especially in rapidly urbanising and coastal areas where the impact of rising sea levels and extreme weather events is most pronounced. Without adaptation, the annual cost of climate-related infrastructure damage is projected to reach US$4 billion by 2030.
Against this backdrop, UNECA called for a reorientation of Africa’s economic strategy through the greening of its industrialisation drive under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The Commission emphasised that achieving structural transformation through green industrial development is critical to enhancing economic diversification, creating sustainable jobs, and preserving natural resources.
“Without significant investment in climate resilience and economic diversification, the continent’s economic stability could be at risk,” the Commission cautioned.
The report forms part of UNECA’s broader advocacy for strategic interventions to ensure the successful implementation of the AfCFTA, positioning climate adaptation and sustainable growth as foundational pillars for Africa’s long-term economic transformation.
