- World Bank Sees Brent Crude Easing To $79 A Barrel In 2027
The World Bank expects Brent crude oil to average $79 a barrel in 2027, down from a projected $91 in 2026, but warns that further conflict-related supply disruptions could push the price as high as $105.
The forecast points to some relief after a volatile year in which the global energy price index is projected to rise by 32%, reversing three years of declines. But the projected easing is conditional: the Bank’s baseline assumes there will be no major intensification of conflicts affecting commodity supplies.
Brent averaged $69 a barrel in 2025. The projected $91 average for 2026 represents a sharp increase, while the 2027 estimate implies a retreat of about 13% from that level. Even at $79, however, oil would remain above its 2025 average.
The Bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook describes markets under pressure from simultaneous shocks. The conflict in the Middle East has drawn down oil inventories, disrupted supply flows and heightened the risk of further shortages.
Brent futures exceeded $110 a barrel in mid-October as traders weighed conflict-related supply losses against the prospect of higher production elsewhere.
The forecast’s central assumption is that the market will move towards surplus in 2027. That would allow prices to ease as supply recovers and demand adjusts to high prices.
The World Bank also points to longer-term changes, including the growth of electric vehicles, which could reduce oil use, particularly in China.
The path to that surplus is not assured. The Bank estimates that global oil supply will fall by 5.2% in 2026, its largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Consumption is also expected to contract, by 2.5%, as high prices curb demand and electrification reduces some oil use.
Yet production remains below consumption, forcing further withdrawals from stockpiles and leaving markets exposed to renewed disruption.
That gap between current scarcity and an expected future surplus explains why the forecast is vulnerable to events. If supply returns faster than expected, prices could fall more sharply.
If conflict damage, shipping disruptions or production constraints persist, the market could remain tight for longer and prices could rise instead.
The Bank’s adverse scenario puts Brent at an average of $105 a barrel in 2027 if risks—including an escalation in the Middle East and continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure materialise together.
That is $26 above the baseline. It would also extend pressure on energy-importing countries and raise the risk of higher transport and production costs across the global economy.
The difference between the baseline and adverse scenarios is not a technical detail. It shows how much of the forecast depends on geopolitical developments that governments and businesses cannot control.
The $79 figure is a central estimate under specified assumptions, not a guarantee that oil prices will fall by that amount in every market or month.
The impact also extends beyond fuel. The World Bank expects food commodity prices to rise by about 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, a cumulative increase of 18%.
It links that outlook to disrupted grain shipments, the threat of El Niño to harvests and higher fuel and fertiliser costs. Fertiliser prices are projected to rise by 14% in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
These spillovers matter because energy is an input into farming, processing and distribution. Higher oil prices can raise the cost of moving food and other goods, while elevated fertiliser costs can affect production decisions and harvests.
A decline in Brent next year could ease some of these pressures, but the Bank’s food-price outlook suggests that lower oil alone may not be enough to restore affordability quickly.
For Ghana, the forecast carries two opposing possibilities. Lower global oil prices could ease pressure on fuel imports and transport costs. At the same time, weaker prices could reduce revenue from crude exports, depending on production volumes and other market conditions. The net effect would depend on the balance between export earnings, imported fuel costs, the exchange rate and domestic pricing decisions.
Nor does a forecast for Brent translate directly into a prediction for prices at Ghanaian fuel pumps. Local prices are also affected by the cedi-dollar exchange rate, refining and shipping costs, taxes, margins and domestic pricing arrangements. The $79 average is therefore a global benchmark for assessing exposure, not a direct forecast of what consumers will pay.
The World Bank projects overall commodity prices to rise by 23% in 2026 before declining by 7% in 2027. The contrast suggests that a lower oil price next year could come after a period of broad commodity inflation, rather than erase its effects.
Households and businesses may continue to feel the accumulated impact through food prices, transport charges and the cost of production.
The Bank’s outlook also highlights the policy choices facing governments. When energy or food prices rise sharply, broad price controls can weaken incentives and become expensive to maintain.
Targeted support for vulnerable households, combined with measures to strengthen food and energy resilience, may offer a more durable response. The World Bank has warned that the overlap of energy, food and supply disruptions could worsen inflation and food insecurity.
For Ghana’s budget planners, the forecast is a reminder that assumptions about oil prices should be tested against more than one scenario. A lower average in 2027 could improve the outlook for fuel costs, but budgeting around the baseline alone would leave public finances and consumers exposed if geopolitical risks keep prices elevated.
The projected fall to $79 is therefore a signal of possible relief, not certainty. Whether it materialises will depend on how quickly supply recovers, whether demand continues to weaken and whether conflict-related disruptions ease.
The more consequential figure may be the gap between that baseline and the $105 adverse scenario: it measures the price of assuming that global supply risks will fade on schedule.
