- England Face DR Congo With Penalty Plan Under Spotlight After Germany, Netherlands Exits
England’s long and often painful relationship with penalty shootouts could face another defining test as Thomas Tuchel’s side prepare for their World Cup Round of 32 clash with DR Congo.
Ahead of the knockout tie, Gambling.com’s AI-powered tournament tool, BetBuilderAI, has identified what it says is England’s optimal five-player penalty order should the game go to spot-kicks: Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford and Jude Bellingham.
The data, drawn from career penalty conversion records, tournament form and pressure metrics, places Toney at the top of England’s penalty chart with a 93.50% career conversion rate. It also makes the case that Tuchel may have at his disposal one of the most technically equipped groups of penalty takers England have taken into a World Cup knockout campaign.
England face DR Congo on July 1 at 17:00 BST in a fixture Tuchel has warned will require patience, discipline and composure. Reuters reported that the England manager has cautioned against over-confidence, pointing to the fine margins already shaping the tournament, including the exits of Germany and the Netherlands.
For England, penalties are never merely a technical exercise. They are history, psychology and national memory compressed into a few steps from the centre circle to the spot. But the BetBuilderAI analysis suggests Tuchel has a chance to approach the old English anxiety with a more clinical, data-led plan.
According to the model, Kane should take England’s first penalty. The captain carries an 88.40% career conversion rate and has scored 24 penalties for the national team. The logic is straightforward: start with certainty. Kane’s role would be to remove the early wobble, settle the group and force DR Congo to respond under immediate pressure.
Toney, with the strongest conversion record in the squad at 93.50%, is placed second. That position is often overlooked, but it can be decisive. A successful second kick gives the team rhythm and increases psychological pressure on the opponent. In Toney’s case, BetBuilderAI appears to prioritise both technique and temperament.
Saka is ranked third. His missed penalty in the Euro 2020 final remains part of England’s football memory, but the AI analysis argues that it should no longer define him. Since that miss against Italy, Saka has reportedly converted all five of his penalties for England, making him not a sentimental choice but a strong data-backed option.
Rashford is placed fourth, with a 91.30% career conversion rate, the second-highest among the five proposed takers. The release argues that his renewed form and confidence make him a compelling late-shootout option, particularly in a position where pressure begins to intensify and one miss can alter the emotional direction of the contest.
Bellingham is selected for the fifth kick. His 80.00% career conversion rate is lower than the others, but BetBuilderAI appears to weigh his temperament heavily. The fifth penalty is often reserved for the player most comfortable carrying the theatre of the moment. In Bellingham’s case, the model points to his appetite for decisive occasions as much as his statistical profile.
The broader context makes the findings more significant. England’s World Cup penalty history has long been a burden, while Germany’s record had traditionally represented the gold standard. But this tournament has already shown that history offers little protection. Germany, previously unbeaten in four World Cup shootouts before 2026, and the Netherlands, whose poor World Cup shootout record mirrors England’s, have both gone out. The message is blunt: reputation does not take penalties; prepared players do.
Tuchel has also placed emphasis on preparation. The Guardian reported that England have implemented a structured penalty system with the Football Association, with Tuchel drawing lessons from past shootout experiences and the mental demands of knockout football.
That preparation could matter against a DR Congo side expected to test England’s patience. The Guardian also reported Tuchel’s warning that his players must not begin to doubt themselves if the game becomes difficult, especially against a defensively disciplined opponent.
For England, the challenge is therefore twofold. They must first win the match in open play. But if they cannot, Tuchel must ensure his best penalty takers are still on the pitch when the whistle goes. That may influence substitutions, tactical adjustments and late-game management.
BetBuilderAI’s conclusion is clear: England have the personnel. Kane offers authority. Toney offers elite penalty reliability. Saka offers redemption turned into resilience. Rashford offers technique and confidence. Bellingham offers personality for the decisive stage.
For a nation haunted by shootout failures, this is not a promise of victory. Penalties remain brutally human, no matter how advanced the data becomes. But England may now have something they have not always had in the past: a clear order, strong takers and a manager under pressure to make the right choices before the lottery begins.
If England’s World Cup journey against DR Congo does come down to spot-kicks, Tuchel’s biggest decision may already have been made for him by the numbers.
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