- GFIM Turnover Rises To GH¢2.24bn As Investors Rotate Heavily into DDEP Bonds
Trading activity on the Ghana Fixed Income Market rose to GH¢2.24bn on October 8, driven by an unusually large increase in secondary-market transactions involving Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bonds.
Total market turnover increased by GH¢95.11m, or 4.44 per cent, from GH¢2.14bn on October 7, according to official trading reports from the Ghana Stock Exchange.
The modest increase in headline turnover, however, conceals a significant change in the composition of activity. Investors sharply reduced their exposure to Treasury bills and sell-buy-back transactions while executing larger trades in restructured government bonds.
DDEP bond turnover climbed from GH¢355.17m on October 7 to GH¢1.44bn on October 8. The GH¢1.09bn increase represents a rise of about 306.64 per cent in a single session.
Consequently, DDEP securities accounted for 64.52 per cent of total market turnover on October 8, compared with only 16.57 per cent in the previous session.
The shift suggests that institutional investors were repositioning along the government yield curve rather than simply increasing their overall participation in the market.
Trading in DDEP bonds was heavily concentrated in the February 2029 security carrying an 8.65 per cent coupon.
The bond recorded turnover of GH¢892.72m across 23 transactions, representing approximately 61.81 per cent of all DDEP bond activity and almost 40 per cent of total GFIM turnover.
Its closing yield rose from 13.37 per cent on October 7 to 13.93 per cent on October 8, equivalent to an increase of 56 basis points. The corresponding closing price declined to GH¢89.65 per GH¢100 face value from GH¢90.67 in the previous session.
The combination of high turnover and a rising yield points to significant selling or a repricing of the security rather than an unambiguous surge in demand. Bond prices move inversely to yields, meaning the decline in price indicates that buyers required a higher return to absorb the large volume offered.
The February 2030 DDEP bond recorded the second-largest turnover of GH¢214.72mn. Its yield increased by 18 basis points to 14.46 per cent.
The February 2032 security also attracted substantial activity, with GH¢263.24m traded. Its yield increased from 14.22 per cent to 14.55 per cent, a rise of 33 basis points.
These movements show that the increased DDEP turnover was accompanied by upward pressure on yields across some of the most actively traded medium- and longer-dated securities.
The picture was not uniform across the curve. The August 2027 DDEP bond’s yield declined by 17 basis points to 10.64 per cent, while the February 2028 bond carrying an 8.50 per cent coupon fell by 38 basis points to 12.11 per cent.
Investor positioning therefore appears selective. Shorter securities enjoyed some price support, while the high-volume 2029, 2030 and 2032 bonds were transacted at higher yields.
Treasury bills remained the second-largest component of the market, but turnover fell sharply.
Bill trading declined from GH¢1.26bn on October 7 to GH¢755.28m on October 8, a reduction of GH¢504.66m, or 40.05 per cent.
Treasury bills consequently accounted for 33.74 per cent of market activity, down from 58.78 per cent a day earlier.
The largest individual bill transaction involved the security maturing on December 28, 2026, which recorded GH¢231.73m across 347 trades. Its closing yield edged up to 4.93 per cent from 4.91 per cent.
The March 29, 2027 bill also remained active, recording GH¢59.92m across 904 transactions, while the September 6, 2027 maturity posted GH¢89.72m in turnover.
The Treasury-bill segment continued to record far more individual transactions than the bond market. However, the decline in bill turnover suggests that the October 8 increase in total market activity did not come from a broad increase in short-term liquidity placement.
Instead, market activity moved towards larger bond transactions conducted by institutional investors.
Trading in the new government bond segment dropped by 97.18 per cent, from GH¢41.75m to just GH¢1.18m.
Only two transactions were recorded in the four-year bond maturing in September 2030, compared with 40 trades across the new-bond segment on October 7.
Despite the sharp fall in turnover, the yield on the September 2030 bond declined from 12.32 per cent to 11.55 per cent, while its closing price increased from GH¢99.01 to GH¢101.38.
The 77-basis-point decline may indicate improved pricing for the security, but the movement occurred on limited turnover. It should therefore be interpreted cautiously rather than treated as evidence of a broad rally in the new government bond market.
Trading in old government securities increased from GH¢10,673 to GH¢391,657. The entire amount was recorded in a single transaction involving the March 2027 bond carrying a 20.75 per cent coupon.
Its reported closing yield of 63.64 per cent was considerably above its opening yield of 30.15 per cent. Given the small volume and single transaction, the movement may reflect the security’s limited liquidity and specific pricing conditions rather than a market-wide change in sovereign risk perception.
Sell-buy-back transactions in government bonds declined from GH¢486.01m on October 7 to GH¢15.38m, a fall of 96.84 per cent.
These transactions accounted for 22.67 per cent of total GFIM turnover in the previous session but represented only 0.69 per cent on October 8.
This is important in assessing the quality of the increase in headline market activity. Excluding sell-buy-back transactions, outright market turnover rose from approximately GH¢1.66bn to GH¢2.22bn, an increase of about 34.14 per cent.
The rise in activity was therefore not merely the result of short-term collateralised funding transactions. It was driven mainly by outright trading in DDEP securities.
Corporate bond turnover rose from GH¢510,000 to GH¢22.03m, although the increase was almost entirely attributable to one COCOBOD security.
The COCOBOD bond maturing in August 2028 recorded turnover of GH¢21.53m across four transactions, accounting for about 97.73 per cent of corporate bond trading.
Its closing price declined from GH¢103.28 on October 7 to GH¢102.18 on October 8.
A further GH¢500,000 was traded in the August 2027 COCOBOD bond. There was no trading in the newly admitted Cocoa Capital commercial paper or in the green and sustainable bond segment.
The jump in corporate turnover is therefore encouraging but remains too concentrated to indicate a broad recovery in private-sector fixed-income activity.
The number of transactions across the market fell from 7,391 on October 7 to 4,194 on October 8, a decline of 43.26 per cent.
Yet total turnover increased.
Average turnover per transaction consequently rose from about GH¢290,000 to approximately GH¢534,000. The shift confirms that the session was driven by fewer but substantially larger trades.
DDEP bonds and Treasury bills together accounted for approximately 98.26 per cent of total turnover. This concentration shows that Ghana’s fixed-income market remains overwhelmingly dependent on government-related securities.
The October 8 session therefore delivered two contrasting signals.
On one hand, the rise in outright bond trading and the reduction in reliance on sell-buy-back transactions point to stronger secondary-market activity. The substantial turnover in DDEP securities may improve price discovery and give investors clearer reference points along the restructured government yield curve.
On the other hand, the market remained concentrated in a small number of instruments, while yields rose on several of the most heavily traded DDEP bonds.
The next sessions will show whether the October 8 activity marked the beginning of sustained institutional rotation into medium- and long-dated government securities or was primarily the result of a small number of portfolio adjustments.
For now, the market is deeper in value but narrower in participation: more money changed hands, yet it did so through fewer transactions and a highly concentrated group of securities.
