- Ghana Remains Eligible for Now as AGOA’s 2027 Future Hangs in Balance
The United States’ decision to remove South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 1, 2027, has sharpened uncertainty over the future of one of Africa’s main preferential trade arrangements with the US.
The announcement is significant for the two countries, but its implications reach further. AGOA is currently authorised only through December 31, 2026. Unless Congress extends it again, eligible countries across sub-Saharan Africa could lose the programme’s benefits when that authority expires, regardless of whether they meet the eligibility criteria.
The debate over who qualifies in 2027 is therefore unfolding alongside a larger question: whether AGOA will continue at all.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, established in 2000, provides qualifying sub-Saharan African countries with preferential access to the US market for a range of products.
The programme is designed to support trade and investment while tying eligibility to governance and economic conditions.
Countries must make progress towards a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism and due process, as well as address barriers to US trade and investment, corruption, poverty and human rights.
On November 2, the Office of the US Trade Representative said President Donald Trump had notified Congress and the governments of South Africa and Rwanda of his intent to terminate their AGOA status from the start of 2027.
The US cited what it described as practices inconsistent with the programme’s eligibility criteria. Its stated concerns about Rwanda include trade barriers, rule of law, political pluralism, worker and human rights, and US national security and foreign policy interests. For South Africa, the administration cited trade and investment barriers, corruption and national security and foreign policy concerns.
The announcement is not simply a technical adjustment to a trade list. It demonstrates how access to a long-standing preference programme can be affected by the wider relationship between Washington and African governments.
It also raises questions for businesses that have invested in production, supply chains and export contracts on the expectation of continued preferential access.
South Africa is the largest economy among AGOA beneficiaries and has a diverse export relationship with the US. Rwanda’s trade with the US is smaller, but the programme remains relevant to its export ambitions.
Both countries now face the prospect of higher costs or altered commercial terms for goods that previously entered under AGOA preferences. The scale of the effect will depend on product categories, applicable tariffs, alternative markets and the final shape of US trade policy.
A list circulating in coverage of the issue identifies 19 African countries as ineligible for AGOA in 2027. But the number requires qualification. The 2026 review identified 16 countries not designated as beneficiaries:
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe.
Adding South Africa and Rwanda, whose planned removal was announced on November 2, brings that tally to 18. Gabon, which appears in the 19-country list, was designated eligible for 2026 after the US reinstated its AGOA benefits in May.
The available official information therefore does not support treating all 19 names as a confirmed, final 2027 list. The administration has announced its intent regarding South Africa and Rwanda, while the programme’s renewal beyond 2026 remains unresolved.
That distinction matters for exporters, governments and investors. An annual eligibility review can remove countries, but a beneficiary list is only part of the calculation. The statutory authority itself must remain in force.
In February, the US reauthorised AGOA retroactively through December 31, 2026, after the previous authority expired in September 2025. That extension restored access for the period it covered; it did not guarantee the programme beyond this year.
Ghana was among the 33 countries designated as AGOA beneficiaries for 2026. That offers a basis for continued engagement with US authorities, but does not guarantee Ghanaian exporters preferential access in 2027.
The next year’s position depends on both the outcome of the eligibility review and whether Congress renews the programme.
For Ghanaian businesses, the immediate priority is to understand their exposure. Exporters should identify which products rely on AGOA preferences, how much of their US sales depend on those products and what costs could arise if preferences lapse.
Government agencies can support this work by sharing clear guidance with exporters, engaging US counterparts and ensuring that Ghana’s trade and governance credentials are communicated through the review process.
The issue also underlines the risks of relying heavily on a single trade preference. AGOA can improve access, but it does not remove non-tariff barriers, transport costs, standards requirements or the need for consistent supply.
Export growth depends on firms’ ability to meet buyers’ specifications, deliver reliably and compete on quality and price, alongside the tariff treatment available at the border.
The uncertainty makes regional integration more relevant, though it is not an immediate substitute for US market access. African governments and businesses can strengthen intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area, while pursuing partnerships with other markets.
Those efforts require practical progress on customs procedures, transport links, standards and financing. Without those improvements, diversification risks remaining an aspiration rather than a commercial alternative.
For Washington, the choices ahead will shape how African partners view the reliability of US trade policy. For African governments, the episode is a reminder that access granted under a preference programme can be conditional and time-limited. Both sides have an interest in clarity: exporters need time to plan, while governments need a predictable process for addressing eligibility concerns.
The near-term priorities are therefore distinct but connected: South Africa and Rwanda must assess the impact of the announced terminations; Ghana and other current beneficiaries must prepare for the end-of-year authorisation deadline; and Congress must decide whether AGOA will continue into 2027.
Until that decision and the full eligibility outcomes are clear, the 19-country headline risks giving businesses a false sense of certainty about a programme whose future remains unsettled.
