- “We Will Have a Good Christmas” on Exchange Rate — Dr Asiama
Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Johnson Asiama has assured Ghanaians of a favourable exchange-rate environment during Christmas, offering businesses and households reassurance as they prepare for the final trading weeks of the year.
Speaking at the African Virtual Assets Summit on Monday, November 2, the Governor expressed confidence in the cedi’s performance, placing currency stability at the centre of expectations for the festive period.
“What I can promise is a good Christmas as far as the exchange rate is concerned. We will have a good Christmas,” he said.
His assurance addresses a practical concern for importers, retailers and consumers: whether exchange-rate movements will complicate purchasing decisions, raise replacement costs and disrupt budgets before Christmas.
For businesses with outstanding foreign-currency obligations, the issue extends beyond confidence. The exchange rate prevailing when an invoice is settled determines how much working capital must be committed, potentially affecting stock purchases, operating expenses and profitability.
The Governor’s comments did not specify a target exchange rate or announce a commitment to hold the currency within a particular range. They represent his assessment of the outlook, rather than a guarantee that daily market fluctuations will disappear.
That distinction matters because stability is compatible with some movement. For businesses, the more important considerations are whether changes remain manageable and whether foreign currency can be obtained when payments fall due.
The reference figures accompanying the announcement placed the dollar at GH¢11.6142 for buying and GH¢11.6258 for selling. Those quotations reflected average interbank rates at the close of business on October 30.
They provide a starting point for assessing subsequent performance, although a single trading-day observation cannot establish a sustained trend or show the rates available for every customer transaction.
At the quoted selling rate, a US$100,000 payment would require approximately GH¢1.16 million before fees and transaction-specific pricing. A GH¢0.10 rise in the dollar rate would increase that obligation by GH¢10,000.
For a company operating on narrow margins, that difference could absorb funds otherwise available for wages, transport or additional inventory. The commercial value of predictability therefore lies partly in avoiding unexpected demands on cash.
A more orderly currency market could also make it easier for retailers to price replacement stock. When future procurement costs are uncertain, businesses face difficult choices between protecting margins and keeping prices affordable.
Greater confidence in the exchange rate can reduce that uncertainty. However, the benefit depends on actual transaction conditions, including the quotations offered by banks, the availability of funds and the speed of settlement.
The interbank reference rate alone cannot capture all those experiences. Businesses will assess stability through their ability to execute payments consistently, rather than through published figures alone.
For households, the Governor’s assurance offers grounds for expecting less disruption from currency movements. It does not automatically mean that food, clothing, transport and other Christmas purchases will become cheaper.
Retail prices incorporate several costs beyond foreign exchange, including freight, duties, financing, distribution and business margins. Existing stock may also have been acquired at exchange rates different from those currently prevailing.
Consequently, currency stability may help contain further price increases without immediately reversing earlier adjustments. Consumers could experience its benefits first through more predictable prices rather than widespread reductions.
The distinction is particularly important when public expectations are shaped by an assurance of a “good Christmas”. The Governor’s promise was expressly about the exchange rate, rather than every component of household spending.
Its wider economic effects will depend on how currency conditions interact with supply costs, competition and the decisions businesses make about pricing.
Central-bank communication itself can influence those decisions. If market participants expect reasonably stable conditions, some may feel less pressure to bring forward currency purchases solely because they fear future depreciation.
That is a potential effect, not evidence that businesses have already changed their behaviour. Reassurance becomes more effective when subsequent market conditions support the message.
For companies preparing budgets, the appropriate response remains careful planning. A favourable outlook does not eliminate the exposure created when revenues are earned in cedis but obligations must be paid in dollars or other foreign currencies.
The timing of receipts and payments still matters. Firms need to understand when liabilities become due and how exchange-rate changes would affect the cash required to meet them.
Exporters face a different calculation because currency movements influence the cedi equivalent of foreign earnings. Businesses that both import and export may experience offsetting effects, depending on the currencies and timing involved.
The shared requirement is predictability. Stable conditions allow firms to make commercial decisions with fewer revisions to assumed costs and expected receipts.
The reported remarks did not include updated reserve figures, projections of seasonal demand or an intervention schedule. Assessing the assurance quantitatively will therefore require further information alongside observed exchange-rate performance.
Regular data and clear communication would help distinguish temporary fluctuations from persistent pressure, while giving businesses a firmer basis for judging the outlook.
As Christmas approaches, the most meaningful test will be whether importers can settle obligations, retailers can replenish stock and households can plan spending without disruptive currency changes.
Dr Asiama has set an expectation. Delivering an orderly foreign-exchange environment would give that assurance practical value through greater certainty across the economy in the closing weeks of 2026.
